A while back, in discussing my decision not to host game tournaments in my store, I mentioned the incident where a guy mentioned he was looking for a tournament, and then told me he bought online. The same guy left a comment that I was dumbass to be making such big decisions on such little evidence.

After my initial defensive response of, "Well, you weren't the first to say that, and you won't be the last," I decided that the comment required a longer response.

If you'll pardon my blogging, a much longer response.

What reminded me of this was a small incident yesterday. I had a young fellow and his Mom come in looking for a single Star Wars figure, one of the Jedi with the right colored saber.

I told him that we had packs for sale, and he might get one in there.

His Mom said she'd buy one for him, and they whispered a bit. Finally, he asked, "Are you selling for 14.99 or 12.50?"

SRP is 14.99, so I said told him that.

He walked away.

No big deal. I was selling a ton of S.W. miniatures six months ago, and then they stopped selling. If I drop my price to 12.50, I drop my margin from 40% to 28%, and I'd rather spend my money on something else.

It also means that there is even less chance that I'll have the individual figure for him.
(If I may digress, I find that singles are only profitable if they are part of the whole package; customers buying packs, price guides and singles....otherwise, you're best moving on.)

So on such little evidence, I'm assuming that someone in town is selling SW packs for 12.50. That plus the fact they haven't been selling, either as packs or singles, means that I'll order the minimal quantity of the next wave.

On such little evidence?

It may be the only evidence I'll get. That plus my own instincts has to be enough.

In my first 10 or 15 years of business, I used to freak out about drops in sales on a fairly constant basis. Nowadays, I realize that brands and products have cycles; moving from cold, to warm, to hot, to warm, to cold. If you're lucky the product will settle back to warm and stay there.

I also have a much more nuanced appraisal of cycles. I divide them into different categories. The product, and where it is on the cycle, whether changes have been made, or the creators have changed. The industry, and where it is on the cycle, whether there have been shipping problems, late product, etc. The store, and whether it is facing some new challenge, like construction or competition. The downtown, and the town as a whole. And of course the national economy.

But back then, I often only knew that sales were dropping, and it freaked me out. I'd call around and ask other stores if they were seeing the same thing.

Here's the thing. Not once when I called another store did they admit there was a problem.

So I'd feel like it was all me. Later though, maybe six months or a year later, I'd find out that not only were the other stores having problems at around the same time I was, but often they were in much worse shape. I'd find out because they'd be trying to sell, or they'd close, or they'd finally admit to it.

I even came up was an axiom. If I'm feeling the downturn, chances are the other guy is feeling it even worse.

Because if you can look around the store and know that you haven't done anything wrong or completely different, the chances are the product itself is at fault. But if you wait for a confirmation, it's way too late.

So on little bits of evidence, and your own instincts, are such decisions made.