Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Half again as much money in just 5 years!

I've spent the last few days enjoying my garden instead of working on it.

Sister Sue and family visited, and to my delight, we all ended up sitting on the back lawn while my two nephews, Nick and Carl, tumbled and rough-housed. Which is the image I always had of the back yard -- friendly and comfortable.

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Didn't get a chapter done for writer's group, so I'm still stuck at four chapters. Summer has always been harder for me to write. Often, I get the urge to write about the time school starts, which I think is just a Pavlovian reaction to to the Fall season.

But I'm still committed to the story, and will make absolutely sure I have a chapter done for the next group.

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Sales were down about 25% from last weekend. Which is better than the 50% drops I used to get. Considering there are literally 10's of thousands of people downtown, it seems just O.K.

My guy on Sunday actually seemed frazzled. "You wouldn't believe how many kids were in here running around!"

Heh.

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Have been having ostracism dreams as usual. Last night I was wandering New York city, lost, trying to find the subway, and finding store after store after store, in a bewildering maze.

Second dream, I was at a golf course where the clubhouse was more like a funhouse. Tiger Woods was with me for awhile, but he was a real nincompoop, so I ditched him. Couldn't find the dining room and my food was getting cold.

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A site called Business Insider had this to say about Bend:

The Best Housing Markets For The Next 5 Years.

#2 Bend, Oregon.

Projected annualized growth 2011 to 2016: 11.7%

The time to buy in Bend is now. The market is projected to trough in Q3 before several years of accelerating growth. Home prices are down over 42% from peak.

Annualized growth: 11.7%.

I guess if you believe that, you deserve whatever happens. Since we'll probably still be dropping for a year or two, that would mean the last two or three years of that timeline would be, what?, 18% annualized growth? I know that 5% growth in ten years adds fifty percent to your beginning number, so I'm assuming that 10% growth over five years would have about the same result.

That's a pretty crazy number.

It would be funny if it wasn't sad. I mean, I think bringing people to Bend to spend their money is great -- but I think I'd feel guilty if I didn't at least post a word of warning.





5 comments:

H. Bruce Miller said...

Re real estate projections: The economic basis for solid, rapid growth simply isn't here, never was. The frantic growth of the first half of the decade was driven purely by speculation, not (as we were told) by millions of people suddenly deciding that they just absolutely, positively HAD to live in Bend, Oregon at any price. Nothing has really changed since 2002, except that there's a lot more housing stock and a lot more people competing for jobs.

Duncan McGeary said...

I'd be surprised if we see ANY increases for a couple of years, and then only because every drop has to have an end.

Everyone is fighting for those few decent houses in the 200k range that are actually free and clear to sell.

But that means there is a logjam of houses that cost more -- where either the owner or the bank or whoever hasn't cleared away the legal issues or been willing to come down to a reasonable price.

Added to all the shadow inventory of foreclosures and adjustable rate mortgages.

How could anyone think this was over?

H. Bruce Miller said...

"Everyone is fighting for those few decent houses in the 200k range that are actually free and clear to sell."

I got one I'll sell tomorrow for $250K, totally free and clear. Hell, I'll sell it today.

Anonymous said...

That's not really that bad of an assessment. Let's be honest here.

By 2016 ( or 2014 ) bottom, we'll be down another 50% from here, so to say there will be a 11% boom from the trough is certain.

That the bottom will hit in 2014 has long been predicted. That there will be a slow crawl back from bottom in 2016 is certain.

The real issue is there will be NO million dollar homes. That homes will revert to 2-4X year income, and that income is dropping, what was once $40k family income, will in the future be more like $30k. So about $120k for a nice little home, in 2014, and maybe in 2016 it will rise to $140k.

Homes will be homes, the days of everyone buying 4 will be over. Toss in that DEBT will be gone, and not available, that getting a loan will almost be impossible, that most sales will be in cash.

In 2-4 years it will be very ugly. Just look how long it took for the Great-Depression to correct real-estate about 15-20 years, and this GREATER-DEPRESSION will take just as long.

I'm being optimistic above, personally I think it will be much worse. Bend simply doesn't have much going except location, and that is a negative for most things. 'Lifestyle' is not going to be a priority in the coming 'depression years'. In the past 40-50 years living in Bend was largely about 'lifestyle'. That's Bend-Over(tm).

Anonymous said...

Dunc,

You're cool for taking 'anonymous' posters. Because much of the good stuff comes anonymous.

Just sayin'.