The economy is complicated, man.

It's amazing how -- if you ignore the daily, weekly, even monthly economic reports -- this recession is playing out the way I originally predicted.

It's sometimes easier to predict the perimeters of an event when it is still on its way, than it is while the event is actually happening.

We had a great first 7 days of July in business -- which is neat, except that it seems like every month we have a strong first week or two and then it tails off.

I don't look for signs of recovery to the economy, because I don't think they are really there.

Sure, upticks here, upticks there, followed by downturns here, downturns there.

But the basic facts -- a lack of good paying jobs, underwater houses, pretend and extend commercial loans -- haven't changed much. They may have even gotten worse. At least, around here. People piled into Bend, which has a certain momentum to it, but I'm not sure that isn't as much a negative as a positive. Without a change to the fundamentals.

What we can hope for, more tourists and retirees, helps keep Bend from falling into the crevasse, but it doesn't really create the strong, dynamic economy we might want. I'm not sure we'll ever have that kind of economy. I'm pretty sure we're stuck with "Poverty with a View."

And, I don't see anything that is going to change that dynamic anytime soon.

We see people opening new businesses, and investing what to me are extraordinary amounts of money in Mom and Pop storefronts (how do they ever expect to earn that investment back?!) and this is great for downtown vacancy rates and for the image of vibrancy it gives to Bend -- but, well, I'm not sure it's good for the pocketbooks of the actual entrepreneurs.

That's the big difference between now and the awful '80's. Some real money came to town during the boom, and some real large debt loads, and I think that is still happening to some extent.

Anyway, I try not to let the daily, weekly, and even monthly trends get me down or up. I think we're still in this for the long haul.

I just figured this bubble would play out the same way every other bubble I'd experienced -- a steep, mind-numbing drop, followed by a long period of thinking things would get better only to be dashed, followed by another long period of thinking things would get better (Repeat and Rinse as many times as necessary), followed by giving up expecting it to get better, followed by the day when you suddenly realize that things are better and have been for a while but because you had given up you hadn't seen it.

So, I figure we are still in one of the "expecting it to get better" phases, and thus nowhere near it.

It's best to run your business as if things might go up a little or down a little, but not to expect major changes. Settle in, hunker down, try new things -- but don't let the news headlines distract you from what is actually happening.