Tuesday, October 27, 2009

"Emotional Bookmarks"

The Wall Street Journal has a Housing "Concentrated Risks" chart; most of Florida is bright red, most of Southern Cal is bright red, Las Vegas area is bright red.

Most of the Northwest seems either white or slightly orange.

Except for one bright red spot -- smack dab in the Central part of Oregon.

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"U.S. 97 Project Scaled Back" Bulletin, 10/27/09.

Buried in the middle of this is a mention of Cooley Rd, and an, oh by the way, we're scaling back. Yet another nail in the coffin of Juniper Ridge?

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Jim Cornelius has an interesting blog in the Nugget; "Why We Do Stupid Things In The Outdoors."

He talks about the phenomenon of otherwise sensible people running out into the wildness unprepared.

"A book I read recently has some great insights into this phenomenon, which happens over and over and over again. It’s called “Deep Survival: Who Lives, Who Dies, and Why” by Laurence Gonzales.

There’s a lot to this book and any thumbnail necessarily gives it short shrift, but one of the basic points is this: The mind creates “emotional bookmarks” based on strong positive or negative experiences. Our mind goes to those when we make decisions and the emotional feedback we get overrides our rational mind, our good sense."


He could just as easily be describing Business Owners and their decisions. I usually make my worst decisions after a protracted period of success. Just this fall, September was so good that I tried to extend it by ordering probably more than I should. Keeping the "running high" if you will.

I forgot winter weather was coming, the dead season. I had a great first 2 weeks of the month, but this last week has been pretty terrible. I'll probably still beat last year, which is great, and most of the money I spent has been covered.

But I would rather have gotten a cash profit instead of an inventory profit.

I've noticed a huge drop off in tourists in the last ten days, and I'm experiencing the usual regulars drop off in the last third of every month, and Magic has played out, for the time being.

I probably went a case too far on the Magic, which isn't too bad. I'll be able to sell that much over the next quarter or so...

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Did a south Bend loop this morning. The south is kind of tacky, huh? I remember when it seemed to be the next big thing.

Having now looked at north, south, east and west, I'd have to say the east side is cleanest and most squared up, with the least run-down lots and least for lease signs. We're talking commercial, here.

West Bend seems like a hodgepodge, with everything crammed. North is pretty industrial, and half run-down. South is even more run down.

Anyway, that's what I think.

3 comments:

rotorman said...

This comment is in regard "All deliberate speed."
Sorry to be so late. I don't think anyone would read this if I commented today on a blog written last week.
Anyway, I can't understand how someone like yourself, a small business owner, a practical person, and a thoughtful person could possibly agree with most of what Obama is doing. You, of all people, must know the risk involved in borrowing as much money as the government needs to execute all of these programs. Interest rates are low now. But historically they are in the 6% range. When they rise to historical levels, there will not be enough tax revenue to pay the interest. Because I have read your blog for a while, I am convinced that you have stuck your head in the sand when it comes to Obama. Why don't you apply your decades of business experience to what the gov is proposing? If you did, you would have to conclude that this kind of borrowing is unsustainable. you have allowed ideology to take over your clear thinking.

Jeff said...

"this kind of borrowing is unsustainable"

Not if economic growth is faster. And that's what tends to happen. Look at the tremendous public debt amassed during WWII, and its subsequent disappearance during the 1950s and 1960s. While it might make sense for an individual to tighten his/her belt it doesn't always make sense for a country as a whole.

"you have allowed ideology to take
over your clear thinking"

That certainly hasn't been my observation. Don't let them get to you Dunc!

rotorman said...

In order to pay down the debt, the government has to run a surplus. They did that through most of 1947 to 1952 and paid off the huge war and depression debt.
Today we have much different conditions. The below chart shows that the national debt as a percentage of GDP had gone from about 40% to 65% by 2007 and today is at about 100%. With the exception of a few years (1969, and 1998 to 2001,) we have had no budget surpluses. The interest on this debt is part of the reason we can not produce budget surpluses any longer without cutting hugely into service. So your point that economic growth can do what it did in the 50s is a stretch. I stand by my statement present spending is unsustainable.


http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_debt_chart.html