Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Reality Check.

Green shoots?

Thing about green shoots -- the first nasty frost will kill them off.

I always try to gauge the real strength of my business by how I do in the slow months, not the busy months. Summer is summer. Christmas is Christmas. But the rest of the year is the 'off season.'

Not only don't I believe we are in a recovery, I think there is a real danger of a double dip recession. Especially in Bend.

Don't compare June to May, compare it to last June. Of course unemployment dropped. It's summer in BEND!

Meanwhile we still had a rather pathetic 12 building permits issued last month. I've pretty much written off summer; we will probably be down the same 20% we've been down for pretty much all this year.

What I'll really be watching is Sept, Oct, and November, because that was when the biggest decrease happened. I'm hoping that 20% figure will level off. If not, if it continues dropping, then the next 10 months aren't going to be much fun.

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