You don't live near the Deschutes River for long before you become leery of that come-on.
To me, all this talk of recovery and green shoots is just fine. But I'll watch everyone else dive in, and I'll watch comfortably from the shore.
I see no sign of recovering in my store. I'm exactly the same pace down (about 20%) that I have been over the last year or so. I am getting large numbers of people in the door, but very few buyers. I can't be totally sure it's not my store, but since my inventory is --if anything -- better than it was a couple of years ago, that seems unlikely.
Plus I hear verbal evidence that people are being frugal. Putting stuff back after they are quoted a price.
Because of the seasonality of the Bend economy, even if there is some kind of recovery, we wouldn't be seeing most of it until next summer. Maybe an uptick at Christmas, but I doubt it.
Meanwhile, we have the off season.
Something that no one is talking about, but which seems super important to me.
I started seeing the steepest declines in September of last year, about the time of Lehman Brothers going under. Up until now, the declines in sales have been compared to a slow 2008. Starting in September, we'll be comparing to a cliff-diving September of last year.
Another drop from there really would be significant.
5 days ago