When Australian tourists notice.....

It feels like a kind of disaster camaraderie is developing around here; as though Bend was hit by an earthquake, and the desire to pull together and help each other has kicked in.

Customers seem very sympathetic and supportive.

There is a multiplier effect to Vacancy signs. There are only 3 of them on my block, but because they are within a 100 feet of each other, they give off a forlorn feel.

I do believe a bit of capitulation is going on -- ironically, just before summer hits and we have the inevitable seasonal boost. The boost may be down proportionally just as much as the rest of the year, but it will probably still be a boost from where we're at now.

Still, it's as though many merchants and residents are finally willing to admit that things aren't going all that well. Not only that, but admitting that the economy won't be coming back soon. (I still don't know that they have admitted to themselves that we are going to be in the shits deeper and longer than elsewhere....)

There was a fairly long period of 'wishful' thinking going on. I think the stock market going up, a new and active President, the changing season, and most of all, no huge shocks, had set people to believe things would get back to normal.

It's an optimism bias, if you will. It's a mindset; it's hard to change one's way of thinking. In a way, it would be a good thing is there is some of that residual good feeling left when we bottom out, because the alternative is a shift to negativity that may takes years to come out of.

On the other hand, there is also some revisionist history going on. My own personal little models of bubbles and their consequences had this figured out several years ago -- though I don't know that I was completely emotionally and mentally prepared.

Still, I remember that there weren't that many of us sounding the warning.

Now? It's as though everyone knew it was going to happen.

I used to hear a fair amount of smugness -- "It isn't going to affect me!"

Well, it's affecting almost everyone. And that reality has probably kicked in.

I've tried to resist the cheering of doom. It's a natural tendency for us Cassandras-- you can even come up with a rational explanation. It "needed" to happen. That we'll be "better off" that it happened. And so on.

Problem is, this kind of thing doesn't punish the wicked and reward the righteous.

As Marge pointed out, "I feel the slowing of big things going down. I thought the fall may come faster." This slowdown seems to be accumulative, not sudden. We've got a long ways to go.