But, hey, three new restaurants and a hotel are coming!

The most revealing statistic I've seen recently is that commercial property values in downtown Bend, from 1997 to 2007, went up 1600%. Crazy, man.

I started getting worried about the commercial growth in Bend early on, perhaps because I am retail oriented. You all know, I think most of the Big Box stores are nothing but a Ponzi schemes, but that is a national problem, and will probably play out over the decades, not over the next year or two.

But locally, we got a little nuts, too.

When I looked into it, I found that the timelines for commercial property were different: explaining why buildings are still being constructed during the bust, explaining why Gottshalks would open two months before closing.

The timeline at the nether end is also different: these loans won't come due for several years after the residential loans come due. In some ways, they haven't even started.

I believe this is going to be a particular problem for the local banks, who are already shaky from the residential busts. Many of these same banks were using the same low standards on commercial property -- the damage just hasn't set in yet.

Frankly, I'm surprised that any of the landlords downtown didn't sell out when they could. I mean, 1600% was a once in a generation peak. I guessing, because I don't know, that rents must be so lucrative, that even getting 16 times the value isn't enough to compensate.

I think there is probably a big caveat to that: rents are lucrative if the building is paid for.

For everyone who bought or rebuilt from 2003 to 2007, rents are probably a trap.

I watched the Mountain View Mall decline because the banks finally drew the line at lowering the rents (which had been done over and over again to fill up the mall and then sell it). Stores just couldn't survive; but the Mall was falling apart from lack of tenants. It was a vicious circle.

We've just lost Treefort, across the street. And I've noticed that Colourstone has gone to a "Wholesale" by appointment storefront: which I'm assuming is only to play out the remainder of the lease. The clothing store, Blue, is also closing.

The garage is pretty empty when I head home at night, even on Fridays and Saturdays, so I'm guessing these aren't good times for restaurants.

I'm guessing that most of these new buildings won't even return the borrowed money at much less than 2.50 a ft, certainly no less than 2.00 a ft. Appropriate rent, given current conditions, should probably be in the 1.50 range, but I doubt any landlord down there is willing to go that low.

At the peak of the boom, I was actually concerned that both the building across from me, and possibly even the building I was in, would be built up. After all, that sq. ft. I was walking on was worth 16 times more. Build another couple of stories high, and it was worth 48 x's. And so on.

The building across from me sold once, but was returned to the original owner. I believe my building is still in the possession of the family that owned it when I first started.

If nothing else, this economic collapse has eased the danger of that disruption.

Still, you have to wonder how this is going to play out for all these newer buildings downtown.