Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Middle muddle.

I just noticed that there are 11 Anime offerings in the current Diamond catalog. Eleven. Count them.

Out of curiosity, I found a catalog from February 2006, and there were 48 offerings. This steady decline has been happening for awhile now.

Most anime fans download what they call 'fan-subs' for fan sub-title translations.

This isn't just a problem in the U.S. It's happening in Japan, too.

I have no answers.

Just pointing out the problem. Music can keep being made, with a new model, even without fans buying albums.

Hard to see how expensive animation and/or movies can be made unless they are paid for.

Wolverine had a good turnout at the theater, despite the pirated edition being widely seen.

It'll be interesting to see how the DVD does.

**********

Meanwhile, the lull in economic news, both locally and nationally, continues.

Not to worry. I'm sure something outrageous will be along shortly.

I've been mulling over the meaning of this lull, and decided -- I suppose not surprisingly -- that it doesn't bode well for the near long run (next decade or so.)

I think the half measures that the Obama administration took aren't going to solve anything, but just sweep them under the rug, to fester, to become dustballs of doom.

After agonizing over it -- fear of massive collapse -- I came to the conclusion that the bail-out wouldn't do anything for the little guy, and would be a massive money grab on the part of the banks. It would've been scary, but I would've pushed the little red button that let the banks fend for themselves.

Alternatively, I wish they had just taken over the banks.

This middle ground gives the banks enough to survive, but not to be of any use to anyone.

So, I think we'll see a decade of very slow growth. I'm actually O.K. with that. But I don't think some of the business models of small business in Bend are set up for that. There's a kind of slow bleed going on, businesses dropping away, little by little.

(Linda's comment. It's an internal bleed, mostly, and the public won't see it until the patient flatlines....)

It's becoming very noticeable to out-of-towners, which I didn't really expect.

So far, every time 4 businesses go out, 3 or 4 take their place. The danger point is going to be when only 2 come in. After that, all bets were off. Downward momentum could really drag down neighboring businesses. I think there are good strong businesses on every street which will PROBABLY keep that from happening, but then again....I never thought we'd have so many lease signs.

The middle muddle is also going to encourage a lot of happy talk. Sure. Great. But if you're a small business, you need to look at the realities. Sales aren't going to pick up any time soon. We may have a nice boost this summer, we may not. But the downward trends are still in place: High Unemployment, no building beyond what's being finished up, businesses and people vacating.

The boom probably will never come back again. A nice 5% growth rate would be fabulous about now -- but if we're so lucky as to have that happen, it will seem rather tame to all the people who opened up in the 2000's.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. The current slowdown feels awfully familiar, and it just reminds me that during probably half of my career in Bend, it has been a challenge to get people to spend money. Short bursts of frenzied activity, followed by a inexorable slide, a bumpy ride along the bottom, and a long slow climb that you don't even notice at first, a period of nice steady growth -- that turns into another burst of frenzied activity.

Welcome to my world.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dunc,
I feel the slowing of big things going down. I thought the fall may come faster. This IS going to take a very long time to wash out. Since comments have slowed on all of the blogs we are falling into comas and have no real new news. Nationally is the same ol same ol. Locally no one really wants to hear the poor are getting desperate and petty theft is up. People are sneeking out of town slowly but surely. Two renters a day, maybe two former homeowners a day. By the end of summer the numbers leaving will become very apparent.
Maybe Bend will do a Victorville and start tearing down unfinished homes. Hell the water is available in these dustdivisions. Turn them into community gardens for a while. It's better than dust.
The silence in town is deafening and feels uncomfortable to me.
The slower this train rolls the worse it will be.

Duncan McGeary said...

Agreed.

While my overall sales have been better than I expected, I've also had hours and days that were tomblike.

Nothing happening.

I know better than to take it personally, but there is a sense of rejection no matter how you explain it. I fight it, because I know it isn't me.

I also realize that if I just stay patient, my business is strong enough to provide.

But it can feel rather alarming when nothing is happening.

I hope the other stores understand that. It doesn't feel good.

H. Bruce Miller said...

"Short bursts of frenzied activity, followed by a inexorable slide, a bumpy ride along the bottom, and a long slow climb that you don't even notice at first, a period of nice steady growth -- that turns into another burst of frenzied activity."

Yep. And we never learn, do we? The manic-depressive cycle just goes on and on and on. Maybe we should put lithium in the water.

"Hell the water is available in these dustdivisions."

LOL! "Dustdivisions" -- good one, Marge.