Recession proof?

It appears to me that you are likely to get reasonably accurate economic news from two sources: solid businesses that have nothing to fear from the truth, and teetering businesses that have nothing to lose.

From the later source, we recently have the news of the Book Barn closing it's brick and mortar location.

From the first group, you had....well, me? And in the article below, the Pine Tavern.

"At the Pine Tavern Restaurant in Bend, year-over-year sales have plunged by double-digit percentages in each of the past four months....

"It's serious," said Susan Eshleman, manager at the Pine Tavern tourist landmark, where she has worked for more than 20 years. "I don't recall a consecutive two-month period where we didn't experience growth....

"In Bend, the Pine Tavern may offer less-expensive entrees: a 6-ounce top sirloin, for example, or a 10-ounce New York steak, down from 14 ounces. The restaurant probably will boost its staff to 90 this summer, instead of the usual 100.

Pine Tavern hasn't laid anyone off, Eshleman said. "But people are not getting quite as many hours," she said, "as they have in the past."

It's nice to get confirmation from another credible source. I can't say I've had 20 years of increasing business -- the fads precluded that. But I was on an eight year streak.

Seems silly to me to deny a recession has hit. "Official" numbers, notwithstanding.


A few days ago, I was surprised to see that we sold 120 houses in April, down from 154. Only a 20% drop.

Turns out those stats were inaccurate. The Dana Bratton Appraisal Group (what happened, Dana?) released their figures: 91 homes sold, or a 41% drop from last year. That's more in line with what I expected.

But you have some guy on the Bend Economy Board making a big deal out of two houses selling in Northwest Crossing. I too have anecdotal evidence of houses selling; two friends who sold their houses rather quickly. But a couple of swallows doesn't a spring make.

What I've noticed is a distinct lack of credit card offers in the mail. It's gone from two or three a day, to none. Anyone else noticing this?

There was a huge concern not too long ago about failing banks, which could still happen. But since they've pretty much removed themselves from the field of lending, does it really matter? They aren't serving a purpose in the expansion of business, but only in covering their own asses. They are de facto defunct.


Meanwhile, Randy Sebastian "secured financing" for his defaulted subdivision. Well, without seeing the actual terms of the deal, I'm assuming his nuts just got placed in a vice and clamped pretty tight.


The unemployment rate in Deschutes County has reached 7.9%. You can gauge the quality of those not working by the fact that the Inn of the Seventh Mt. feels the need to import 10 workers from Jamaica. There a picture of day laborers in the Bulletin today (is that a beer the guy is swigging?) ; and the comment that one of the job placement branches revenues were down 80%.

80%?!

Not to worry: Deschutes County has a new "income source." Knot's Landfill. We can become the garbage capital of Oregon! Methane is a valuable resource -- we could hook up some cows and double our output!

Jobs in Oregon's Tourist Industry Take a Hit.

Hires last month were half of what was expected.

Tuesday, May 13, 2009: Richard Read; The Oregonian Staff.