One of the cool things about a blog is that I can check my predictions against what really happens. My estimates and guesses are down in black and white, with a date. For instance, my new bugaboo is that Bend is tremendously over-retailed, and that we have an enormous commercial bubble.
No one else around here seems to be talking about it. It seems totally obvious to me, just comparing population statistics and how many stores have been built.
But I have no way of proving it. It's not really my job, you know. My job is selling books.
So I'll just lay that prediction out there, and figure that sometime in the next year it will either become obvious to everyone else, in which case I'll pop up with a copy of this entry and say, "told you so!" Or a big news article will come out saying we have, oh, twice as much retail footage as average, or something.
I'll let you guys catch me all the times I'm wrong.
No, not really. If I'm obviously wrong, I intend to admit it.
The lead article in the business section of the Bulletin today is:
"HOW GOOD A DEAL COULD YOU FIND ON BLACK FRIDAY? Probably nothing special, one analysis finds."
Which is what I said last year around this time, and I think I said it this year around Thanksgiving. I can't find the entries, offhand, so they may have been in the comments section...
Still, just looking at the ads through the season and you can see that, if anything, prices are actually cheaper the week before Christmas and the week after Christmas than they are on Black Friday, and if you keep your eye open for deals, even cheaper by spring.
6 days ago