Trying to get a sense of the local economy.

I'm having a hard time getting a sense of the local economy. The tone of news coverage seems somewhat optimistic, but then it always is, especially in the spring.

Still, it's hard the ignore the real news, headlines and opinions aside. Tetherow lots going to default, Pronghorn asking for yet another extension, bank robberies every other week.

I'm noticing that a lot of the businesses that opened in the first years of the bust, are beginning to fold. They were probably a little too optimistic about Bend.

I've always said, my own business seems to be unconnected to the local and national economy, usually, except for extreme situations like the Great Recession. Once we absorbed that blow, it's been back to negotiating our own path through the usual muddy trails. I added two new product lines (new books and boardgames) at the very tail end of the boom which I continued to build during the bust, and the store is now benefiting.

For the first time in years, I'm not trying to add inventory. Which helps the bottom line.

My overall impression about the local economy is that the downturn is still being managed. The powers that be don't want too many houses, too many commercial buildings, going into default all at the same time.

And shadow inventory is totally underestimated, in my opinion. Not just the houses that are in trouble, but all the houses that are underwater that would be immediately placed on the market if pricing recovers.

So despite all the usual real estate buzz about things getting better, I think we're still in a trough and will be for a long time to come.

I'm trying not to be a perma bear, but it's hard to overlook the damage done.

And yet, I'm getting the tourists in my store, and they seem to be spending money. So my guess is: If you are a business that is properly calibrated to deal with the real economy of Bend --Tourism-- then you can make some money in this town.

If you are a business that is calibrated for 'city' tastes that you think Bend is under-offering, you may be in for some disappointment. And obviously, if you are a business that depends on Bend's building trade returning with a bang, or with Bend growing dramatically, I think you are a little ahead of yourself.