I don't know anything about brewing, but from the outside it certainly gives the appearance of being a fad. I mean, I don't think you can grow exponentially for long without consequences.
There would seem to me to be a finite number of beer drinkers, so there has to be a zero sum result in the end.
However -- there may be a huge untapped demand. A potential reserve of quality micro-brew drinkers. (Just a fraction of the Bud crowd, for instance.)
And certainly, the local brewers can sell outside the area. Unless the same kind of exponential growth is happening everywhere.
What do you all think?
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There's going to be a shakeout eventually. I don't believe there's a big enough local or even regional market to support all the local breweries that are cropping up. But for the time being it seems to be Bend's only viable industry, so I guess we shouldn't knock it.
Everything's a bubble. The Oregon timber industry and America's railroad empires were bubbles; steam power was a bubble, whaling was a bubble, dinosaurs were bubbles; heck, even the solar system & the Universe itself are bubbles. It just depends on your time scale.
Bend has become a hotbed of brewing, but it's not as if such a large segment of Bend's population depends on the microbreweries so that if/when the bubble pops it will throw the town into a recession.
I think the brewing surge is a really good thing: As Duncan points out, Bend's industry is really tourism and if we can add beer-touristing to the mix, it's another reason for folk to visit and spend their touristy dollars.
What makes Bend better then some other place to run a brewery?
I've noticed there is a lot of ameba - ing going on. Brewmasters and assistant brewmasters splitting off.
"Everything's a bubble."
Reminds me of the Onion headline a few years back: "American Public Demands New Bubble to Invest In."
"it's not as if such a large segment of Bend's population depends on the microbreweries so that if/when the bubble pops it will throw the town into a recession."
True.
"What makes Bend better then some other place to run a brewery?"
I can't think of anything. If you plan to sell outside of the region the shipping costs will be heavy. OTOH there's a large supply of cheap labor.
The local breweries are exporting a substantial amount of their production out of the area. They are a sort of a traded sector that this area needs to get off the build houses and tourist merry-go-round.
There is a bit of room to grow. 2010 saw 208 million barrels sold in the US. The craft Breweries were only 9 million barrels of that total. Budweiser was 18 million barrels and Bud Light was 39 million.
I think that it might be a "pacific northwest" thing. We have tons of micros in this area. There are a ton of good beers out there. But it seems that you don't get a lot of, say, Oakshire or Hop Valley beers over east of the mountains, just like we don't see a lot of beers from east coming into the valley. I think the beers that figure it out will stick around and those that don't get much support will die. But just where does that support come from?
Much as I agree with Anonymous that we need this sort of economic diversification, this sure seems like a fad, especially given the timeframe. I don't know the exact numbers but we've, what, tripled the number of breweries in < 5 years? And this during a time when overall beer sales have been declining.
http://www.brewersassociation.org/pages/business-tools/craft-brewing-statistics/number-of-breweries
http://www.brewersassociation.org/pages/business-tools/craft-brewing-statistics/facts
Clearly these breweries will have to capture regional/national markets. But the essence of microbrew appeal is that the boutique-y obscurity of a brew is what helps drive initial sales... but that reduces the obscurity. Catch 22. How many national-level microbrews are there, really? Sam Adams and ...? Yeah.
Also, How much value is there in having a high density of breweries here? "Central Oregon - The Napa Valley of Microbrews"? I don't see it. Sure, there may be minor upsides - economies of scale and concentrated expertise - but do these offset the cost of increased local competition amid a small local population, geographic isolation, etc.
Time will tell. All I know is I picked the wrong time to stop drinking. :P
"All I know is I picked the wrong time to stop drinking."
I sure hope you didn't pick this time to stop sniffing glue, too!
Sniffing glue? What a asshole. Go back to SoCa and sniff all the fumes and social unrest you can stand.
Now, boys.
Anonymous Coward kneejerked and said, "Sniffing glue? What a asshole. Go back to SoCa and sniff all the fumes and social unrest you can stand."
Apparently he didn't get it that my comment ("I sure hope you didn't pick this time to stop sniffing glue, too!") was taken from the movie "Airplane" where McCroskey (Lloyd Bridges) said "Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue."
Which was my followup to Broofa's, "[...] I picked the wrong time to stop drinking."
(Because Bridges's character, an over-worked, over-stressed traffic controller picked the wrong week to stop drinking/ smoking/and sniffing glue.
A.C, you can get up to speed on the whole "I picked the wrong week week by watching this YouTube video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeI5ke0BENw
And dial back the hate a bit, if possible.
I didn't get the reference either.
Probably should have.
Well, if it was too obscure then I apologize that the comment lacked a reference.
Anonymous Coward displays typical irrational, reflexive Central Oregon hatred of anybody from south of the (state) border. One of the less attractive character traits of Central Oregonians, and many Oregonians in general.
Okay, A.C., now you can tell me to "go back to California." (Wish I could.)
Maybe you can post this again,
First of all I doubt much is exported.
Look at this way, .. they come to Bend during the weekends, and there ain't much to do, ... except drink. The recreation is over-priced.
Most beer in Bend is NOT good. If you look at the top-ten gold medalists in the USA coming out of Colorado every year you'll see Bend has never won shit. Cali has produced ton's of good beer.
Only one in Orygun "Hair of the Dog", has produced gold-medal beer, but he's truly a micro-brewery.
Deschutes Brewery is one of the worst brewery's the in the USA, so it was never hard to be better, but sadly on a 1-10 scale where DB is a 1, we're still low 5's in Bend and there is no 8+ in site.
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