Seems to me that we should be asking "Destination Resorts" to build the destination resort part of their business plan first. You know, the hotels and overnight lodging.
If they can't do that, then we need to figure that A.) they aren't meant to be destination at all and B.) they probably aren't viable except as subdivisions.
Not that the problem is going to come up again anytime soon.
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Original predictions about the length of this recession (and Central Oregon has never come out of the recession, in my opinion) seemed to be holding. 7 to 10 years. I start the beginning from August, 2007, though officially it didn't start until early 2008.
So four years in, and we are in the midst of another bear market and lowering employment and high foreclosures and lower sales and prices on houses.
It appears from this morning article in the Bulletin on jobs, that the biggest increase has been in "leisure and hospitality" and "accommodation and food services" and "retail."
Which is just another way of saying "Minimum Wage."
Bend's industry is tourism and retirement and those are mostly minimum wage jobs and I'll be damned if I can see what will ever change that.
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"Another Recession Unlikely."
Hah.
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"Baby Boomers weight down market."
"...baby boomers dumping stocks to branch into more conservative investments as they retire."
Not mentioned is that these baby boomers will probably be going backward in their net worth, because "conservative investments" won't be generating much. Leaving less net worth for the next generation.
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3 comments:
I think it's pretty clear that the Destination Resorts have gone broke. County records show lot sales have been just about nil. County commissioners don't support UGBs so they were excited by the Destination Resort loop hole in the state land use law. Fortunately the economy has taken care of these subdivisions outside the UGB. Expect the county to continue to give these failed developments a pass when it comes to providing over night lodging. Only a fool would buy in a destination resort.
All the 'fools' I know have walked away from their land-mtg at brasada, iron-horse, and powell-butte, ...
Lot's of people bought $1M lots at our BIG resorts, with the idea they would go to $10M, with little to nothing down. Now that these lots of NO resale value whatsoever, everyone has quit paying the MTG.
Everyone I know has simply let their credit-score go down, setup their finances so that they look poor on paper, and let the land default back to the bank, no problem, no-recourse.
It's quite funny that the number 'middle-class' folks that I know bought these homes/lots at our BIG resorts, but virtually every cpa, lawyer, realtor, ... I know bought one. Today virtually ALL I know have walked away.
Here's something to think about, the status quo bought this shit and run local&county government, so its in their interest, to OMERTA ( mob silence ), its in no ones interest to talk publicly that those that RUN our regional government are deadbeats.
Everything that we love in BEND like COTA, COBA, ... CORA are still running the SHOW.
So its NO surprise that the BULL just keeps repeating the old shit, cuz its what the masters ( HOLLERN ) expect, what has worked in the past, to lure suckers to paradise to buy the dream ( desert land ownership :) )
Now of course nobody really wants this desert land, well of course CALIS with money will continue to escape from LA ( or BAYAREA ), maybe there is is enough to keep Bend afloat?
My personal guess is that so long as PDX has RAIN, there will be sunbirds flocking to Bend on the weekend. :)
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