Saturday, August 27, 2011

Again, watch out what you wish for.

You know, I don't think people are fully understanding who the digital content actually affects.

Of course, it affects retail. That's undeniable. Maybe it affects retail the most.

But believe me, it will have a huge affect on the publishers and even more so on the distributor(s). And eventually, that circles back to the consumer.

When I read the comments on the Tilting at Windmills column, I think there is this idea by a lot of comic readers that it doesn't matter if the local comic shops disappear. They seem to believe they'll get their comics some other way. In fact, many of them seem to be actively cheering for our demise --because their local shops didn't satisfy them, they want them all to go away.

Which really is throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

What's more likely is, the whole edifice will collapse, as soon as the base erodes enough. It's all interconnected, folks. That's how the world works these days. It doesn't take a 100% adoption, I keep trying to tell people. A 20% adoption, which means 8 out of 10 people still buy their comics through stores, might be enough to do permanent harm. As I always ask people, can I take 20 or 25 or 30% off the top of your paycheck and you keep paying your bills?

I worry most about my distributor, Diamond Comics, who seems to be stressed in other areas of their business.

I'm about 50% comics and graphic novels , and I could probably get at least about half of those titles by some other means if I had to: either direct from the publisher or through one of the book distributors. It would be inconvenient, but not impossible.

I'm also fairly convinced that if I took the money, time and space devoted to comics and put some other product in their place, I would replace a good percent of lost sales.

Ultimately, I worry about the publishers themselves. Oh, Marvel is owned by Disney, and DC is owned by Warner Brothers, but both are such small components in comparison, that I can see the corporate parents deciding to keep the "licenses" alive -- maybe digitally, just enough to keep the copyright. Disney has done that for decades now with the Duck and the Mouse.

Comics will continue to exist. No doubt.

Superman and Batman, and Spider-man and Captain America and Thor will exist, no doubt.

But whether you will be able to read your monthly comic may be in doubt; whether physical OR digital.

Creators must be paid. Schedules kept. Plans made.

So here's the biggest irony. Comic shops will probably survive, at least some of them -- and some of them may survive longer than some of publishers. Record stores are still around, bookstores are still selling books.

Small retail can be very adaptable; those small businesses who aren't adaptable are going out of business anyway, someday, someway.

I'm convinced all this radical change isn't even necessary. That the change could happen slowly and organically. That we aren't the music industry, because we aren't so easily plundered, unless we let ourselves be.

But the publishers are diving off that cliff with a parachute they've never used before.

You know, about 20 years ago, the card companies made the decision to flood the mass market. What I wouldn't give, to get in a room 20 years ago with Fleer, with Pinnacle, with Leaf, with Action Packed, with Sky Box, with Donruss... and say to them:

"In 20 years -- you'll all be gone. And I'll still be here. And there will be Topps, and Upper Deck will only have the hockey license, and Basketball will be produced by an Italian sticker company..."

Good job.

And even more ironic, all those card collectors who could care less about the local "overpriced" card shop when they could buy their cards cheaper from Walmart?

They're all gone, too. At least 99% of them are. A lot of good it did them.

Online is bloodless. No body language; all reviews sound the same, no way to really gauge the enthusiasm, (or the honesty (paid for?) of that enthusiasm), no flesh and blood person to connect with.

Again, I think back to when sports cards would arrive in the store, circa 1986, and there would be palpable excitement in the air; 5 years later, the same collectors are wandering the aisle of Target or Walmart, vaguely unsatisfied; 10 years later a few of them are still buying online, but feeling forlorn. 10 years after that, they call me at the store with a confused tone in their voice: "Isn't anyone buying sports cards anymore?"

Can't everyone see that you still need that flesh and blood person to connect with? No?

Anyway, like the title says, watch out what you wish for...

You can't blow up the building and select which floor you want to survive.






1 comment:

Anonymous said...

In my mind the story you tell is the safe for all bubbles.

99% of the software companys from 1980 to 2000 are now BendGone(tm).

99% of the internet company's from 1990's are now gone.

The greatest difference between ma&pa shops such as yours who are creating a lifestyle and/or income, the vast majority of all biz, is about the quick-buck and riches,....

People who go into any venture with min-wage in mind and survival, will do just that. Most who start a biz, whether comic fad, or card fad, or internet fad, most of these people will fade over the years. Just a fact.

Big COMPANYS always buy small fish for a reason, whether its IP ( intellectual ) or TM, ... or market, they take what they need, and disembowel all else. Just a fact.

For every APPLE or MICROSOFT there are 10,000 folks who failed, the great story's success are about being in the right place at the right time and keeping the nose to the grindstone over your entire life.

Comic is most comical, reminds me of 'cards', I'm think HALLMARK, I mean how many valentines before you go crazy, .. how muny ducks? or mice? Creative people, artists do that shit, artists aren't known for redundant mundane repetition, such as yourself who can show up at the same min-wage shop day after day your entire life.

Great EMPIRES are far and few between, EMPIRES such as DISNEY are more like FORD, more of a NAZI thing about great power. Disney like FORD or Napoleon, ... not normal men raise these great company's of power. Just like JOBS whom I despise as a cheap rolex fake salesman, but he stayed the course for his desire to power and to control all content, music, video, ... et-al

Lucky for all of us most men are not a Jobs, or Disney, just a normal guy wanting a normal simple life.

Nothing lasts for long, all fads pass, and most people don't squander their lives on boring repetition, unless of course they're slaves in debt ( think usa citizens ).