What is it about Bend...?

What is it about Bend that causes newcomers to overextend?

I'm sure it happens everywhere, but it seem particularly acute in Bend. People come here and seem to completely misjudge the level of business they can do here. Always on the high side. Almost always.

I think sometimes that people see Bend as a nascent Eugene, say -- or some Rockie mountains tourist town, or California coast town. Someplace like that.

Having lived in Bend my whole life, I see us as more as an overgrown Prineville. Burns with a few mountains nearby. Having watched ALL businesses struggle just to survive throughout most of the 80's, it was eye-popping to see people pouring into town and seeming to transform it overnight.

And yet, what fundamentally had changed? Tourism got bigger? Retirement got bigger?

Of course, we know the bubble inflated the construction and real estate industries. And it followed that retail and services would expand to meet the perceived need. But it was more than that. It seemed as though enough people wanted a vibrant restaurant and theater and music and sports scene, and by-golly that what they got.

But...the financial underpinnings still seem pretty weak to me. The dollar producing industries seem lacking. Tourism and retirement is a minimum wage job producing industry.

I'm not saying you can't succeed in Bend, only that it's tougher than it looks. Something about the isolation, the demographics, the lack of an interstate, the de facto lack of a four year university, lack of major industry, dependence on tourism and retirement, etc. etc.

These factors somehow belie the 'metro' status of Bend, the overall population, which would seem sufficient for all kinds of enterprises but lack the cohesive support of outlying or connecting populations, in my opinion.

Part of the problem is the idea of coming to Bend to prosper, to get rich. I think if you are smart, you come to Bend to 'get by' , to survive, and eventually -- if you are lucky and work hard -- prosper. But if you want to get rich quick? Bend probably isn't the place.

Anyone who lived here in the 80's instinctively knows this. I believe there are opportunities which longtimers understand come along every few decades or so to really make lots of money on the enthusiasm and innocence of newcomers -- but the really smart oldtimers know it won't last. Make hay.

I also think that when Bend became an official metro area (we were metro at 50K + 50K whereas we weren't metro at 49K + 49K) the chainstores piled in, because --- that's what chainstores do. It's in their ponzi nature to expand wherever and whenever possible.

I suspect some of them, after a couple of years, looked at their sales figures and went -- "Wow. Wasn't this supposed to be a metro area?"

Ironically, I think the very excess of growth in this town may actually tide us over until there is enough financial underpinnings to support them. I suspect a whole lot of wealth is being drained away, but as long as these newcomers can hold it together, they may get by.

And the next time there is a boom, they'll probably be like me, and be a little cautious and suspicious but try to make hay while the grass is growing.

Sorry to start the year so bracingly, but that's how I've been thinking about the end of the year.

Happy 1/1/11!