Tetherow is on hold due to lack of financing.
In reality, commercial credit dried up about 10 months ago. All the building that you've been seeing? It was all approved and collected long before that.
The rest of the developments have been like a player at a Texas Hold-em game, sitting on their money, hoping for a big hand that never comes as the pot gets bigger and bigger and finally the big blind is coming around.
Pretending to be players. Applying and drawing up plans, building the occasional house, or talking up the golf course, or whatever. Throwing the occasional chip on the table.
But the big blind is coming around and it's more money than they have.
It's put up or shut up time.
They're getting up from the table while they still have a bit of money. Or like Linen's and Things, finally throwing in the towel. (heh)
As I said the other day, the financial crisis creates convenient cover. It also paradoxically means there are a lot of people who are going to have to stay in Bend even if they wanted to leave. They won't be able to sell their houses, or find a ready job elsewhere. They'll have to adjust their lifestyles to the real level of business; not the illusion of the last five years.
Heck, they may find it's not so bad. So you don't get to go out to dinner every other night, or buy a new SUV every year. Bend is still here, and that's why you moved here, right?
I've always said that's Bends genius; we welcome your money, we smile tolerantly at your high falutin talk, watch as you come down to earth, spank you gently on the bottom, and say, "Welcome to poverty with a view."
About Tetherow. It seems to me that when they say they're "still spending money" that what they're saying is, we are still selling houses. As in, a sub-division. It's that pesky "Destination Resort" designation that's being put on hold.
But doesn't that mean that all those permits and approvals were given under false pretenses? Now they're not even bluffing about building a Hotel. But they'll still put their hand in if it's all aces.
Of course, our local government is very unlikely to withdraw the approval now, and they know it.
Meanwhile, in the real economy, the recession is still here. It hasn't gone away.
Was watching Charlie Rose last night, and one of the economists said something interesting: "Those that sell to higher income households are going to have real trouble."
But I thought that's why Bend was immune? All those "higher income households...." would spend money freely?
We went all in, with an ace and a king, but every card flipped over has reduced our odds, and the last card is being turned.
Good luck to all of us.
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3 comments:
What I am waiting for is for the Country to stop the extensions, collect the Bonds that were put up, take over the land designated for the hotel space and then allow open bidding on any body that is willing to meet the hotel requirement. It would certainly build up the countires revenue picture and help it get through the bad times. Of course the tardy developers will not care for it.
talk about typo's.
Open bidding to anyone willing to meet the hotel requirement.
The county's revenue picture
I'm probably repeating myself.
But I've always been dubious about the 'rich' people's money. Most of the money spent downtown in the last 5 years was bubble money, an illusion.
Let's say on the most cheerful of estimates that only 20% of the money was bubble money (I actually believe it more like 80%) that 20% down is enough to set into motion the domino's.
There were businesses that were over their head even during the good times, other businesses that were near the edge, other businesses that were planning for dramatic growth, and always the businesses that over estimated Bend's potential.
20% will be enough to drag a few down.
The way I heard that malls die. You have 10 stores in a row, the weakest goes out of business, diminishing foot traffic, which then drags down the next weakest, and so on.
I never thought I'd see a time when downtown faced that danger, but logically, I think we do. I still can't believe it, but my mind says, why won't it?
Rich people's money.
Well, maybe. We'll see.
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