Saturday, October 11, 2008

It's only prudent.

Had a big day, yesterday, which brought my sales up to original estimates for the month.

So here's hoping that September was an anomaly. January of this year also sucked, but was followed by more normal months. So I'm hoping that Oct., Nov. and Dec. will be more in line with what I was expecting.

I'm actually kind of optimistic about December, strangely. I think people will kind of let loose a little -- the election over and there will be a honeymoon period with Obama, and hopefully most of the panic on Wall Street subsiding. A dead cat bounce, if you will.

I believe I have the kind of interesting but relatively inexpensive product that people can feel good about buying, books, toys, games.

All bets are off for January, though. Going to be careful there. I think every business should probably expect a 20% pay cut next year, even if it doesn't happen.

September is my new benchmark; I expect to hover about 10% above that, with some months being 20% higher; but I also have to expect that I'll occasionally do 10% below that, or even the black swan 20%.

It's only prudent.

So far, so good. Lot's of businesses will cut back spending; but being able to keep up your service and selection; without cutting into your margins (constant SALES!) takes a whole nother level of sophistication.

Because of my experience with bubbles like pogs, beanie babies, pokemon, I'm pretty practiced at smoothing out my spending in a seamless way that hopefully the customer never has to notice.

I've actually been intrigued a bit by how easy it's been this time to keep ordering the stuff I need within budget. Part of that is that the store finally reached a very viable level about 8 years ago, whereas before I was almost depending on the occasional bubble. The base so far seems pretty solid, though I'm glad I added books and games in the last year. It might have been more dicey without them.

For some reason, my income never seems to really change. Which probably means I'm imprudent on the way up, and prudent on the way down, making my base the same.

The intriguing part of owning a business has always been negotiating the pitfalls. Keeps life interesting.

4 comments:

Duncan McGeary said...

The problem for most businesses downtown is that they are scaled too high.

It's as if I have 10 comics on the wall. I have to sell 8 of them to make my nut.

What I think downtown has seen is a whole lot of stores with 10 comics on the wall, but real demand at 5 comics.

Hell, most businesses downtown are scaled for 12 comics, or 15.

And they are going to sell 5.

The other 5 comics were a mirage, bubble money. And the 5 comics beyond that were a delusion.

Welcome to the real world.

Duncan McGeary said...

If the word comics is distracting, substitute widgets.

Quimby said...

Oh, widgets....now it makes PERFECT SENSE! :) I think you're right on in the sense that at least 1/2 of these businesses revenues were HELOC or bubble fueled. For the unaware, the appearance of a strong business climate was very seductive and many made business decisions based upon these bubble revenue levels.

I'd share my pessimistic/realistic views with friends in the early days of the bubble implosion and they'd just laugh and humor me for a bit. Now, many of them are selling their houses and toys and its a very sad sight. Really sad.

I also don't claim to be any sort of genius. After all, a stopped clock is right twice a day. I've NOT made lots of $$$ when there was $$$ to be made on the way up.

Duncan McGeary said...

The only way to make money off a bubble is to skim it off in bonuses at the top -- as in, wall street fat cat bonuses.

To make money on a ponzi scheme you have to knowingly participate and cynically get out when the gettings good.