Sunday, February 7, 2010

Ad's suck. What am I, Unamerican?

Greece!!!

It's your fault.

Double dip recession.

Damn you Greece!!!!!!

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I've been pounding the "Sales" lists so hard, my Overall margin came in at 10% higher than normal this week (stuff ordered several weeks ago when the offerings were strong.) . I was starting to have my doubts about buying so much, but the last week of offers were pretty meager, so I probably timed it right.

Strike when it's cold.

Thing about liquidations; they are usually timed when you can least afford them.

That's why they're being offered.

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Wow. Talk about your dated material. The Federal Economic Census of 2007 might as well be from the year 2020, for all the relevance it has. A curiosity.

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Meanwhile, the Bulletin's BIKE EVENTS PROVE WORTH, was a well reasoned and data-supported argument.

I'm still not convinced.

I'm not arguing with the reasoning or the data. Just not impressed by the numbers.

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Here's where I get in trouble.

But it seems to me that nobody else is willing to be the doubter. (Or maybe I'm the only doubter, I don't know.)

I could put an event on in my store every month, which would spike my numbers. Why don't I? Because I'm not convinced that the results are worth the effort, frankly. You ever notice how a new store will have myriad events early on, in their bright-eyed, frisky tail phase? And how the events diminish over time? Why do you suppose that is?

But if people are willing to put in the work and effort, I don't suppose it hurts any.

Let me insert here. I think there are indeed businesses who benefit from promotions and advertising. There is also a huge lobby for these things; the media, the organizational people whose jobs depend on creating such events, the people who sell at these events, the hotel and restaurants, and of course, the biggest constituency, the people who attend these events.

What am I, against fun?

No. I'm just saying that not every event is effective, and I'd argue that none of them are quite as effective as most people seem to think. This isn't all black and white, all or nothing.

But I don't actively oppose them. I'm willing to go along with them.

No, I'm trying for a nuanced appreciation of the costs and benefits. Like I've argued against having an event at every Peak Weekend of the year (summer and Christmas) and letting us stores have a few busy tourist weekends where we can do regular business. I'm not against all events, just TOO many events. O.K.?

So there's my not so hidden agenda: Not all events are cost effective, not all events are equally effective, not all stores benefit equally, and sometimes -- gasp -- it's best to just let a store be a store.

I'll just say, I've been skeptical of advertising and promotions for years, because it seemed like my money and effort were mostly wasted.

And, hey, I'm still here, and doing better than ever.

Promotions are all well and good. But it's your day to day business that counts. The same energy and money you put into 'events' could be put into better inventory, for instance. So instead of an immediate 10 or 20% spike in sales that lasts a week or two, you get an on going 2 or 3% that lasts.

It used to drive me nuts when I'd see Downtowners who were totally into constant promotion, and yet closed at 5:00, who weren't open on Sundays, who seemed not to want to work their own stores. Take care of the basics first, instead of spending all your efforts on "Second Tuesday Madness White Sale and Bike Race!!!!) I admit, this problem is less nowadays, as Sundays are much more active.

I actually have many examples in my own store history of "Events" that brought in what would have to be considered "Successful" levels of audience: and in the end, faded to nothing because they weren't focused on real interest.

I used to have huge crowds for Pokemon. Hoards of people for Beanie Babies. They were waiting in lines at the door for Pogs. They were banging down the door for Sportscards. (Ditto non-sportscards, comics, magic, etc. etc.)

And when all those people were gone, they were gone.

So you might argue that those were fads, and of course they were gone. But think of these as promotional activities -- I not only reached large numbers of people, they actually came in and spent money!

Turns out, that doesn't mean much. In my business, at least. I'll repeat that, "Not in My Business."

To me, promotions are just advertising, paid for by WORK and money instead of just money. I apply myself to my business, I expend my work and money on the contents of my business. My guess is that anyone TRULY interested in what I have to offer will check Google or the Yellow Pages; anyone who doesn't know I was here after 5 years, isn't TRULY interested.

My wife's business continues to garner new customers with every month that passes. She hasn't advertised a dime in 6 years, hasn't had a balloon filled, glittery event, she doesn't serve coffee and pastries, there are no festivals or hullabaloos.

She just shows up regularly every day, keeps her store comfortable and attractive and organized and clean; takes in used books, gives people credit, cleans the books, is knowledgable and friendly, and puts them out on the shelves at less than half the overall price of retail. She's located centrally, and on a busy corner.

Seems to work.

I'd rather have 5 new solid customers, than 50 people who were attracted by free wine, or people in spandex riding in circles...

But some of those 50 people might become customers!

Oh?

Not so's I've noticed.

When I walked out of the store Friday night, the streets were absolutely jammed with people at the Art Hop.

Yesterday was one of the slowest foot traffic days I've seen in years.

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On a related note. I was somewhat insulted over the last 5 to 10 years when a customer would say, "I didn't know you were here!" and they had been in town for 5 years or longer.

I'm still mystified how a Bend resident cannot be aware of my wife's store, which sits on the busiest traffic corner in town -- but it proves that people see what they want to see and they come in when they want to come in.

Anyway, I'm now seeing this differently. I'm now seeing this as proof that we still have plenty of potential customers.

How sad would it be if Everyone knew I was here, and the business I was doing was the business I would always do?

(Yes, I'm aware of the contradiction of complaining about not everyone knowing me or my wife's stores are here, and at the same time arguing against promotions and advertising. Just goes to prove, I really don't believe they are effective, because I have the need, but don't think those are the solutions....)

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"THE BULLETIN IS NOT ANTI- SCHOOLS...."

Of course not!

They're just anti-FUNDING of schools....

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Ditto for the Jail measure.

Strong law and order themes in the Bulletin, week after week.

But as a letter to the Bulletin argued -- the solution seems to be to just take the miscreants into the desert and feed them bread and water.

I'm not saying I have a solution. I'm not saying that the unions might not be over- reaching.

I'm just saying, I don't understand how you can argue against any way of funding, and at the same time call for increased law and order and increased educational effectiveness.

The waste argument seems like a phantom.

That said: didn't we just build a new jail?

20 comments:

Anonymous said...

I can only respond to the BULL.

The masters of the world want us to pay for more prisons, because they fear us, and they want to send us a signal.

Regarding education, the masters of our little world we call Bend, don't want an edooocated public. Are you out of your fucking mind? Mushroom's Dunc, the greatest fear in the world of a plantation-owner is that his child has to compete with low-life children. This is why school quality differs by an order of magnitude.

A docile ignorant public, afraid of their own shadow that fears incarceration, this is the world of the BULLeting, our BULL.

Today we have fearful bankers (MOSS), and builders (Hollern) who for all affect and purpose OWN&CONTROL OUR BULL. How?, its an old story that been re-hashed many times, but in effect Hollern gave the BULL $5M in land(1998), and MOSS had the city buy that land from the BULL(2007). The BULL is obligated to the masters.

The masters (plantation-owners) only want three things.

1.) That the field-niggers fear incarceration ( beatings ).
2.) That the field-niggers never have a real edooooocation.
3.) That the field-niggers make enough to keep the house-niggers (gubmint workers) employed to protect the plantation owners.

End of story.

Anonymous said...

To be honest dunc, on the subject of whether your an ameriKKKan or not, all I can say is spill-over.

If it weren't for the hype and promotion of downtown, you wouldn't have the traffic,

It's easy for you to assume that linda's shop would have all this traffic, ... or that your biz would have the traffic if it weren't for the constant self-promotion of Bend by COVA,...etc, .. but then fact is you and linda have profited.

I don't see you setting up shop out at the food of HorseButte, where there are no people.

Bend is a self-promoting town of hustlers, and city-hall is still ran by developers, & builders, and construction outfits. Fact.

Someday your dream may come true, maybe in 4 years at the bottom of this econ trough there might be a crew running Bend that put's knife through the heart of all this RE self-promotion, but until then your just another parasite enjoying the ride.

I'm not trying to insult you, just point out that your powerless on this subject, ... but you do benefit from this promotion.

Duncan McGeary said...

I don't have that sense of coming disaster, Buster.

It was so clear there was a huge bubble back in 2007, and knowing what I knew about bubbles, I knew the consequences would be horrid.

And they were.

Now we're bumping along the bottom. And we'll see decreases and increases in the 10% range.

I could be wrong, though. My store can easily adjust, these days. But while we're seeing increases I'm going to try to boost them.

Greece going down the tubes is what the doomsayers were predicting however, which gives me pause.

Duncan McGeary said...

Oh, I'm letting your "nigger" post stand, though I don't agree with it.

I think the "masters of the world" are mostly clueless, and petty, and greedy, but probably not masterminds.

Anonymous said...

The reason more than a year has passed since the biggest bailout in the history of the world and nothing has been done to prevent a repeat performance — even as the biggest banks are doling out more than $30 billion of bonuses, even as Goldman Sachs is awarding its big traders $16 billion in bonuses (more than the $13 billion Goldman collected from taxpayers via the bailout of AIG), even as AIG itself is handing out bonuses — the reason is … what, exactly, Senator? Because the Street has sent an army of lobbyists to Capitol Hill?

Call me old fashioned, but I thought Congress was in charge of passing legislation, not Wall Street.

Wall Street is where the campaign money is. US SEN Dodd of all people knows that. He's been on the receiving end of lots of it over the years.

Wall Street firms and their executives have been uniquely generous to both political parties, emerging recently as one of the largest benefactors of the Democratic Party. Between November 2008 and November 2009, Wall Street firms and executives handed out $42 million to lawmakers, mostly to members of the House and Senate banking committees and House and Senate leaders. During the 2008 elections, Wall Street showered Democratic candidates with well over $88 million and Republicans with over $67 million, putting the Street right up there with the insurance industry as among the nation's largest equal-opportunity donors.

So that's why there is no CHANGE in the land of OBAMA HOPE!

Now for Bend, its the SAME, the BULL & SORE have their own patrons, people take care of their needs. Certainly if the city hadn't bought the land from the BULL, the BULL would be BK today. To expect the BULL to look out for the interests of the little-people of Bend what I call the 'field-niggers' ( working people in private sector ) is insane.

To imagine that OBAMA is different than BUSH is also insane.

Everything in the USA is owned and controlled by Patrons, and its always been this way.

Anonymous said...

The 'nigger' post comes from HL-MENCKEN, and is commonly excepted to NOT mean people of black color.

The USA has always been a plantation colony, a third world country, but then you have a small mind, so what does would think? or care?

In all plantations, there has always been the field, the house, and the owners. Today in our Bend we have the field folk working jobs like yourself, and the house-folk running the government, and the plantation owners not spending a dime of their own money policing the field folk. This stuff all got setup up back in the 1890's in an effort by the plantation owners to stop unionization.

Its simply amazing the at true US history cannot be discussed without fear that you might not be politically correct.

Many black people know and understand that in many ways the poor white trash of the USA are the real 'niggers' of ameriKKKa.

Duncan McGeary said...

Maybe so, but I was here as Bend was built back up, and I'd say it was 60% hard work and 10% "promotions" and 30% luck in the sequence and content of how and when and what stores arrived that brought downtown back.

Tax incentives, maybe.

The malls -- the two malls that were torn down -- had a promotion every weekend.

H. Bruce Miller said...

"I was somewhat insulted over the last 5 to 10 years when a customer would say, "I didn't know you were here!" and they had been in town for 5 years or longer."

Uh, maybe it's because you don't advertise?

Duncan McGeary said...

Yeah, except 90% of these guys don't spend money, anyway.

"Casual" comic readers are pretty rare. You either read them or you don't. If you do, you'll find me.

Ditto with games and cards.

In a way, being downtown IS my advertising, paying much higher rates per foot for the 'casual' consumer.

Like I said, I think if they're interested, they'll find me.

As far as my wife's store is concerned.

We are on the Busiest Corner in Easter Oregon. We have the Biggest Signs legally allowed. We have books in every window. We have the Biggest Lettering on our windows we can get away with. We leave our lights on at night.

We're visible from all four stops at the red light.

So if you live in Bend, you're going to tell me you haven't passed through that intersection?

And if you don't notice the store despite all the above, how likely are the same perceptively challenged folk likely to notice a 1 inch 50.00 ad, a 5 inch 100.00 ad, and upward? For what? A phone call asking if I'm 'buying cards or comics or books?'

Seems to me if you're a real reader, the kind of reader who buys books, you'll find the bookstores, the comic shops, etc.

If you're not, you can expand vast amounts of money on people who will never notice, and even if they do notice won't buy much.

Anonymous said...

Tax incentives, maybe.

The malls -- the two malls that were torn down -- had a promotion every weekend.

*

All the corruption in Bend will NOT save your CRE's ( commercial real-estate ), ... six months is when this stuff is supposed to hit the 'street' and make the sub-prime crisis look like tiddly-winks.

All of HBM's advertising, ... will not help. Most indicative of 'strip-malls' is that USA has 18 sqft 'retail space per person', EURO has 6, and asia has less than 1. Consider todays economy its easy to surmise that excess USA retail buildings is 18X, ... so go ahead promote and advertise your way out of this morass.

Yes, the mall's, mall's and the suburban restaurants, ... yes advertise, its all worked well since 1910 marketing-based economy. Now what? Excess in everything a society max'd out in credit, and now dependent on other country's producing their junk, but these other country's soon not wanting worthless paper.

Considering what Geithner did to 'rescue' the housing-crisis, one can only imagine what he will do with the FED-RES printing press to save the CRE collapse.

If I were DUNC, .. I would put out a big sign that said "In business since 1986, and locally owned, and I'm NOT a strip-mall", ... Yes advertise, let people know your there, ...

Anonymous said...

I think we can have 20 comments by the time HBM's football game starts. HBM you buying the beer at Deschutes? Maybe dunc will bring some old warn out comics for you? We can figure out an advertising strategy while we're waiting for the kick-off. 3:30pm, that gives us 2-1/2 hours to post another 10 comments.

Duncan McGeary said...

I'm constantly tempted by advertising, ever since I heard the statistic -- oh, going on more than 5 years ago now -- that 75% of Bend had been here for less than 5 years.

No wonder no one knew!

Problem is, I'm paying regular rates to reach maybe 1% of the possible populace who would seek out comics and graphic novels -- which is half my business -- knowing that most of those same people have already found us, or are so dense nothing I will do can penetrate their noggins.

The other problem is, I'm not happy with most of the radio and T.V. ad quality. I won't something I like, not something I'll just accept. Especially at the thousands of bucks.

Ditto, in a smaller way, print ads.

I've also had really lousy results in the past.

This is NOT an invitation for advertisers to contact me...

Anonymous said...

A breath of Fresh Air for our own CORA of Bend, ....

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) recently published the resale housing report and sales were off by over 16% in December 2009. In tracking our internal reports, I knew the NAR report wasn’t going to be good. So what is the Realtor to do if I’m correct, and this country suffers through a malaise for the next three years?

I can guarantee you the one thing that all Realtors who survive will want, and that’s 100% of their commissions. With less sales happening, Realtors are having to work harder and harder for sales, and they are in no mood to part with a percentage of their commissions.

The Realtors who we speak with everyday, that are still making sales and surviving, are doing so by generating their own leads. They are surviving by going back to the basics and grinding it out. These Realtors generate their own buyer referrals; and their sellers are their own referrals.

I suspect that we’re going to experience during 2010 even more Realtors retiring from the business. We recently heard from a Realtor that has always produced between $15 million and $25 million a year who said he’s tired. He puts in 80 hours a week just to survive.

Now, that said, we are seeing a phenomenon that I have to contribute to the unemployment in this country. We are getting probably 20 to 30 people a week contacting our company that are in the process of getting their license. We don’t hire new Realtors, but these new Realtors all expect to get 100% from day one.

It should be another very different year in our industry.

Duncan McGeary said...

"I can guarantee you the one thing that all Realtors who survive will want, and that’s 100% of their commissions. With less sales happening, Realtors are having to work harder and harder for sales, and they are in no mood to part with a percentage of their commissions."

Baloney.

They'd have to repeal the laws of supply and demand.

With less sales, the consumer will have more clout, not less. They'll gravitate toward the real estate agent who charges less, not more.

And unless it's a cartel, there will always be someone willing to go cheaper.

H. Bruce Miller said...

"Casual" comic readers are pretty rare. You either read them or you don't. If you do, you'll find me."

I think that explains how you've been able to do well without advertising. You have a niche market and the customers in that market seek you out. You also have virtually no local competition in that niche. If you were selling, say, pizza I think you would have a different take on the value of advertising.

Duncan McGeary said...

If I had competition, we'd both be sucking wind.

As far as the 100% commissions, maybe I have this wrong and they're referring to not sharing with the agencies? Instead of not coming down for the customer?

Anonymous said...

What you Sow, So Shall Thy Reap ...

Fox News ... Yes USA family values are coming home to roost!


Father Accused of Waterboarding 4-Year-Old Daughter

A U.S. soldier has been accused of "waterboarding" his four-year-old daughter because she would not recite her ABCs.

Joshua Tabor, 27, of Yelm, Wash., allegedly beat the child before holding her head under water Sunday night in the family's kitchen sink, The News Tribune reported.

Tabor reportedly told a police officer that he and his girlfriend "held her down on the counter and submerged her head into the water three or four times until the water came around her forehead and jawline," according to the newspaper.

The suspect said he punished the girl for "refusing to say her letters."

Tabor, a soldier at the Lewis-McChord base in Tacoma, Wash., has been charged with second-degree assault of a child and is set to appear in court Feb. 16.

The suspect reportedly told police that his daughter was afraid of water "and was squirming around trying to get away from the water."

"Joshua did not act as though he felt there was anything wrong with this form of punishment," the police report said.

Tabor's girlfriend also told authorities that the girl had “severe bruising on her entire back" and had locked herself in a closet to hide from her father, the newspaper reported

Anonymous said...

NOBODY ever said there was a coming 'disaster' dunc, those are your words.

Because your a feeble man ( NED FLANDERS ) and you run to the 'tin-foil' hat argument, rather than admitting the truth, that your just a luck parasite on right host at the right time.

'Disaster'? What disaster? There's no disaster me and you both know its just Bend around the wheel, same as 1983, same as 2010, .. nothing new under the sun.

I have said a 1,000 times here that a recession is when your neighbor is un-employed, and a depression is when your un-employed. In your case you have income and a net, thus your a lucky parasite.

Ginger & Jerry said...

My big complaint is when stores run continual promotions and treat their repeat customers like crap. As if they are only interested in the new customer.

I am a loyal customer to places I like and if I am treated well I am a great spokesperson for that business. I am free advertising! I am their best promotion!

I would come for the free wine though....and like a beagle to the fridge, I would probably come back at least 3 more times in hope you were always giving out free wine.

Anonymous said...

Please 20 comments please.