Thursday, January 26, 2012

Not an ounce of integrity.

According to Yahoo Finance:

"Fewer Americans bought new homes in December. The decline made 2011 the worst year for new-home sales on records dating back nearly half a century."

So what do the "experts" conclude?

"Although this decline was unexpected, it does not change the story that housing has likely bottomed," said Jennifer H. Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Um, why? Because it's reached a new low? You just told us it was unexpected, so how can I not expect you to miss the next forecast too?

But this last statement floored me.

"A sustained rise in new home sales is imminent," he said. "Homebuilders say so too, and they should know."

"Homebuilders say so too, and they should know."

I'm speechless.


Duncan McGeary said...

You'd think this kind of clueless shameless pandering would've been laughed out of the business by now.

But that's the thing about being shameless -- you can just bring it on forever, while people get kind of tired of pointing out that you are full of shit.

The bubble busters are gone, satisfied that they've done their job.

But they underestimate the shameless experts.

Duncan McGeary said...

I probably don't need to point this out, but...

You can't know that something has hit
"bottom" until AFTER it has gone back up.

Hitting a new low is not proof that it's hit bottom, instead it is evidence that it may yet go down.

Saying that homebuilders "know" is utterly ridiculous. Since they were so awesome at predicting how many houses they should have built and how much they could get for them.

Not to mention how shameless they were at being promoters of the idea that things were getting better. Just as they were 6 years ago, 5 years ago, 4 years ago....

They are the absolute LAST PEOPLE ON EARTH I'd ask for an honest opinion.

Andy Z said...

You have to remember, many so-called experts are so deep in it that self-delusion could also be in play here.

By the way, there's a story on the front of the Bulletin business section today about JC Penney's new pricing strategy. I think you'll approve.

Duncan McGeary said...

Think about the fact that Penney could actually drop 40% in prices as a strategy.

Which says to me that they were radically overpriced in the first place and it's all a Big Con.

Speaking of business reporters, one of them illustrated the "40%" drop by mentioning a 10.00 item for 4.00. So, apparently, even math is too much for them.

Andy Z said...

Yeah. I think the point of the story is that major retailers at some point discovered that promoting heavily got people in the door. But that strategy has diminishing returns, right?

I think savvy consumers will appreciate the new strategy. It feels less like trickery. Not sure about their new "destination" mini stores, though.

Duncan McGeary said...

The "mini" stores kill me.

We've been told for years that "big box" stores were the all conquering conquererers.

Now....they are giving us "mini" stores which are what -- ?

Normal Sized Stores!

Builder_Dude said...

""They are the absolute LAST PEOPLE ON EARTH I'd ask for an honest opinion""

Awww shucks .........

Duncan McGeary said... the building going?

Duncan McGeary said...

Funny thing, I've actually written a blog before where I said the last person you should ask about how business is going is the small business owner....

If it's bad, they don't want to say. If it's good, they don't want to say.

Duncan McGeary said...

I don't even excuse myself from that. I've had the happy coincidence of doing O.K. for the time of this blog -- neither extraordinarily great or lousy, so I can be upfront.

And within reason I'm willing to talk about it.

But there would be limits.

Builder_Dude said...

"" the building going?""

Could be better...... But it's been worse.

H. Bruce Miller said...

The late, great Bob Chandler used to say that small business owners are the biggest liars on the planet.