Wednesday, November 10, 2010

The seas are still stormy.

A few days ago, in The Sea is Calm, the Sea is Stormy, I commented on the completely divergent views I'm gleaning from the economic press.

Today's Bulletin has a review of the Central Oregon's Economic Forecast meeting.

Obviously, I'm much more inclined to believe Tim Duy's prediction, than the other fellow. I think Central Oregon still has a leg down to go, or two.

I think there is, and will continue to be, a "superficial" recovery. Stores opening (and then quietly closing a year or two later). The "appeal" of Bend is working to that extent. But the underlying economic forces are an undertow which will be a constant drag on that optimism.

In a sense, the optimists are saying that "If you Build it, They will come." The realists are saying, "And work Where? At what Wages? Buy a house and watch it drop in Value? Open a business without a complete understanding of local conditions?"

I remember when we were in the Mountain View Mall, there was an almost constant optimism that the mall was going to recover -- new owners, new facade, new advertising campaign. But the fundamentals were so flawed, that nothing less than a total makeover -- such as what Sunriver is doing -- was going to help. In fact, the Bend River Mall made much more drastic changes, and -- well, it doesn't appear to have helped all that much, though there are so few small stores there now, who knows?

The Mountain View Mall is gone completely, and much of this happened during the Boom. The damage was before the Boom. The Boom created Cascade Village -- which is completely unattractive to me.

Anyway, I don't know that I have any further insights into all this. But there doesn't seem to be any other blogs left who are a platform for views about the local economy, and I'd love to hear what you guys think.

4 comments:

Duncan McGeary said...

To Tim Duy's view that: "...livability is only a factor when people can afford it, and with the fall in housing prices, declining wages and potential reductions in retirement incomes on the horizon, there's likely to be fewer people with the financial means to move here, move their businesses here or retire here in the near future..."

I would add; If there is a stronger national recovery, people will leave here in search of jobs, and if the local economy recovers enough for people to unload their properties, that will only accelerate.

Leitmotiv said...

is there still a bookstore in Bend River Mall?

Duncan McGeary said...

They had a Waldenbooks for many years....gone.

Bend Economy Man said...

What's almost essential to getting a boom kicked off again (and that's what Bend's real estate industrial complex is talking about when they talk about "recovery") is a sense of urgency.

This is one of the reasons why booms don't start instantly, unless there's a sudden change of circumstances like discovering gold. But once you've developed that momentum and sense of urgency ("get in now or you'll get left behind!!"), it sustains the boom -- until it doesn't.

Whatever it is you want to do in Bend, there's not much rush. Optimism isn't enough to create urgency. Urgency comes when everything you see around you confirms: no time to wait, there's more risk in waiting than acting.