Monday, November 22, 2010

"I'll make you a deal, ma'am".

"This is honest offer. I really mean it.

"So here's the offer. You have just turned down the three new Edward Abbey books I have in stock, which are 14.99 each. Desert Solitaire; Monkey Wrench Gang; and Abbey's Road.

"I want to you keep track of your time, starting this minute. Then I want you to go to all the other used bookstores in town. One is just down the block, Dudley's. The other two you'll probably want to get into your car and drive to; the Bookmark and the Open Book on Greenwood. If you drive, I want to you to estimate your total mileage, there and back, you know, including looking for a parking spot.

"I will pay YOU the FULL price of any used copy of these three Edward Abbey books you happen to find, even if you find more than one copy of these three books. If you find one, I'll buy it for you. If you find three, I'll buy them.

"In return, I only ask that you pay me minimum wage for every hour you spend, and the current costs of gas and mileage.

"What do you say?"


The above is what I wanted to say, but what I really said was, "Well, Edward Abbey doesn't show up used very often, and when he does, he tends to sell."

I decided to follow this up on my own, just for fun. I'm going to act like the above customer and take up the challenge. (I wanted to visit the bookstores anyway, so this will be a treat.)

I even called my guy, Jasper, at my store, and Alisha, at Linda's store, and told them to "I'm running a strange little experiment that has nothing to do with you but has to do with my blog. I'm going to come in and wander around a little and then come up to the counter and ask you for a specific author. I want you to treat me like you don't know me, and that I am just another customer."

Employees: "......uh....O.K." (weird boss...)

Here goes.

Wish me luck.

*****DISCLAIMER: I understand, as Linda pointed out, they may just enjoy the thrill of the hunt. I enjoy the hunt, too, though I have a rather large list of favorite authors and books; and I especially enjoy the fruits of hunts that I didn't expect to find. I also understand, that it may not have been an urgent request. You know, they happen to be in a bookstore and just ask about an author. Though that they asked for a single author and then left certainly testifies to the specificity of their request. *****

I think it's a fair experiment.

12:14. Pulled out of my home garage. I'm not going to count the time and energy I spend getting to my store, though it might be fair to.

12:26. Parked in garage. (low traffic.) 3 miles.

12:29. Reached Pegasus Books. Jasper says, "If you're looking for used books, we have them on the other side of the store."

"Is this all fiction?" I asked.

Jasper gives me a spiel, telling me where everything is. ("way to stay in character, I whisper...").

Then he subverts the process, and asks if I'm looking for a particular book. "I'm looking for Edward Abbey...." (I had planned to look around first, and then ask...)

"What kind of book is that....?"

"Oh, he wrote fiction, non-fiction, essays, that kind of thing. Environmental sort of stuff."

He leads me to the fiction, and there -- low and behold -- is an Edward Abbey book, The Best of Edward Abbey, for 5.00. Now -- I assumed since the woman had been looking at that section, that we didn't have a book. Stupid assumption on my part.

12:36. Leave Pegasus, and walk to Dudley's, arrive one minute later. I look throughout the store, check the nature/fiction/science/mysteries/environment/ etc. Finally go up to the counter and ask. Clerk looks it up on the computer, says he can 'order' it, I thank him and leave.

12:45. Leave Dudleys.

12:49. Leave Garage.

12:54. Arrive at Open Book. 1 mile.

Look around store, check all the different categories, then check literary fiction. Find 3 Edward Abbey books. Abbey's Road, for 4.50. Voice in the Wilderness, for 6.95 and Beyond the Wall, for 7.00.

1:09. Leave Open Book.

1:11. Arrive at Bookmark. "Hi, stranger...." I say to Alisha, while she looks at me quizzically.

1:21. Have checked entire store. Ask Alisha. She shows me all the areas she thinks they might be, and I take a second quick look, don't find any.

1:25. Leave Bookmark.

1:30. Reach Garage, again. 2 miles.

1:35. Finish up biz.

1:46. Back to garage.

2:03. Back home. (way more traffic.)

So...what did I learn? It was fun to visit all these stores as if I was an innocent customer who knew nothing about the stores. All four stores were worth visiting in my eyes. I wasn't surprised that the Open Book had some of them, I've always thought they are a good bookstore. Bookmark is a bit more eclectic, maybe. But the Open Book has lots of good books. I think Bend is lucky to have four such used bookstores.

So, if we stick strictly to the one book of the three that I set out to find, the 4.50 copy of Abbey's Road, the lady customer would've saved 10.45 from buying a new book.

Playing fair, and assuming she would've checked all 0ther three bookstores, it would've taken her about 3 miles, and about 50 minutes to find the one book she was looking for. She wouldn't have found the other three books, but she would've found two other Edward Abbey books instead.

Total minimal cost? (And I do mean minimal, in that I went directly to the right stores and directly to the right sections.) It would've cost her about 7.00 to 7.50 overall. So, 4.50 for the used book, plus 7.50 in time and money: 12.00.

Total savings on Abbey's Road? About 3.00 for a used copy versus a new copy. To me, an hour of my time is worth considerably more than that.

Now, by my bet, it would've taken an extra 10.00 minutes, and if you also include mileage cost, all savings are pretty much gone. If you figure the actual driving distance to and from downtown, it would've cost even more.


The point of this experiment?

People don't really accurately calculate in real terms the time and energy it takes to accomplish things. That people are less than rational in their allocation of time and energy when it come to a perceived "saving a few bucks." Indeed, I doubt the above fictional customer would even agree to work at minimum wage, nor take the minimum energy payback.

And I would submit, that local stores would be doing much better if people were a little more rational about their buying decisions.

It's has become price, price, price, even when it's irrational to chase it.

8 comments:

H. Bruce Miller said...

"That people are less than rational in their allocation of time and energy when it come to a perceived "saving a few bucks."

Yes indeed. I'm always amused by the spectacle of motorists waiting in long, long, LONG lines at discount gas stations to save a few pennies a gallon. If you have a 20-gallon tank and you save 4 cents a gallon, that's a whopping 80 cents you just saved. Whee!

Meanwhile you've wasted a half-hour of your time and probably burned half a gallon of gas while idling your engine.

The flaw in classical economics is the assumption that people will behave rationally for the maximization of self-interest. They often don't -- not even close.

RDC said...

The experiment assumes that the number of hours worked is an unlimited resource. That is that the person can spend the time freed up by working an additional hour or hours.

However, in reality for most people, the hours worked is a fixed quantity that they do not have any control over, and how they spend their free time is a variable that they can control.

So instead the decsion is if they are willing to spend the resource they control (time), instead of the resources that is fixed (money).

Anonymous said...

"The flaw in classical economics is the assumption that people will behave rationally for the maximization of self-interest"

There's nothing in economics that says that 100% of people always go to the lowest-priced store, without regard for wasted time.

Duncan just happens to get a few of them in his store, and they drive him crazy. And then he tells it to the rest of us.

In statistics we call them an "outlier."

Economics would predict that the length of the line for cheap gasoline is *just long enough* to make the next person indifferent between going there vs. the high-priced gas station with a short line.

It all has to do with the opportunity cost of time. Mine is high (I'm impatient), so I don't fool around with the ultra cheap station.

Maybe some people don't have anything more productive to do with their time than wait in line for the slow station (and maybe the slow gas station has a better/cheaper variety of drinks, smokes, or whatever).

Duncan McGeary said...

I'd say about 3 out of 4 people will walk away from an in-stock new paperback book to look for an out of stock used book.

But they may speak more to motivation than anything. I mean, they may be 5.00 motivated to buy that book, but not 15.00.

I'm aware there are all kinds of alternative explanations.

Still, I've decided in my own behavior to buy it when I find it, if it's within a reasonable retail price....

RDC said...

Duncan,

You should be happy. If everyone was really interested in minimizing time spent, they would just order online and not bother to go to the store.

Duncan McGeary said...

"....they would just order online and not bother to go to the store."

Well, I got a theory about that too. (I got a theory for everything...)

Which I shall go ahead and give you right now....

Duncan McGeary said...

...right now...rather first thing tomorrow.

H. Bruce Miller said...

Jeff: "Economics would predict that the length of the line for cheap gasoline is *just long enough* to make the next person indifferent between going there vs. the high-priced gas station with a short line."

That explanation is very elegant and logical, but I suspect most people behave much less logically than the explanation presumes. For most people, the "reasoning" probably goes something like: "Oh boy -- cheap gas!" Period.

Of course I have no empirical evidence to support that theory, but neither is there empirical evidence to support the more elegant classical economic theory.