Back in my accustomed spot.

Whew.

I was getting worried. It seemed there for awhile that everyone was as negative or even more negative than I was about the business climate in Bend. I've talked to out-of-towners who seemed to believe that downtown Bend is desolate, boarded up. And, of course, it's amazingly busy with new stores popping up everywhere. (How everyone is actually doing -- as I always point out -- may be something else entirely.) Stores keep a'comin'.

But, now, with the seasonal uptick, that has changed. People are getting all excited like, and thinking we're back! I find myself once again -- I won't say more negative, I'll say -- less positive than most people I talk to. That makes me feel a little more secure, somehow.

I think we're still in the slobbering, muggy, muddling part of the low middle range. (Sorry to use so many technical terms.) For instance, June has shown no real strength, and it's almost over. Even if July and August pick up, we're already too far in to make up for it.

So...after that, we're into the Fall season, then Christmas, then the long slow slog to summer, again.

Foreclosure and short sales, all around. I was talking to a developer who said that all those bids for short sale houses are for show. That the people making the bids are more or less being strung along, so that the bank can establish a low value and take back the house themselves.

Which goes along with what I've read nationally that the banks don't actually want to relinquish their 'toxic' assets, because they still think they can make money from them.

All they have to do is wait it out. Not make any loans and stay solvent.

Not sure that was the intention of the 'bail-out.'

Positive attitude can only take us so far. If real time foreclosures and alt-loan adjustments are there to hammer us down again. No building, to speak of. It is pretty much survival time. Breaking even will be an achievement.

A few small trends, I don't know how significant they are. It's anecdotal, and I just believe it's happening but can't prove it.

The first trend actually is documented, but I don't know how long running it will be.

1.) Lots of people and lots of small sales. But not very many big sales. I'm not seeing what I would consider the "Hey, we're on vacation, let's buy it" crowd yet. It's still early and they may show up.

2.) More cash transactions. Seems like people aren't whipping out their card quite as much. I noticed on one day that I didn't get a single purchase with a card until late in the afternoon. But that may have been a fluke.

3.) People coming into the store who are telling me that they are either moved to Bend, or are planning to move to Bend. Some have even bought a house. Then again, if someone has left town, I guess they wouldn't be around to tell me. I saw the biggest exodus over the winter, and the shelves seem to have stabilized.

4.) People seem to think the economy is getting better. I don't think it is, other than seasonal variation. I think what we're seeing right now is what we'll see for at least one more year, and probably two. Sure, the severe decline has slowed, but I think 'green shoots' is overstating it.

5.) Nevertheless, the middle management people, the people between the actual small business, and the media on either end, seem to think things are getting better. They even reassure me it's getting better. Why? Because the media is saying it, and because their clients -- the stores -- aren't telling them it's Armageddon anymore. But....stasis is not exactly the same thing as 'turning around.'

Like I said, I think we're in the great muddy muddle middle.