Sunday, June 14, 2009

We should be fine around the year 2014.

I've taken to posting the Central Oregon building permits every time the Bulletin has them, because this, to me, is one of the most important statistics out there. It shows a 53% decline from last year, and so far this year, a 59% percent decline. This .... going into the heart of the building season.

Bend went from 22 permits to 17, which is basically the difference between awful and terrible, or something. Both numbers reflect a stagnant building economy.

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Meanwhile, McClatchy Online has another one of those great interactive maps that projects that Central Oregon won't return to 'prerecession' employment levels until 2014. Five years from now.

It also arrives at a figure of 13,500 unemployed persons in Bend with the 15.6 unemployment rate. (In addition to all the contract workers in Bend which is probably higher than most places.)

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BB2 picked up on Bob Thomas's comment that "Bend is in a Depression." When Paul-doh said a couple days ago, he had picked up his headline from Thomas's testimony, I looked for likely phrases and came up with these:

"There was confusion as to why Bend...will be abandoned...."

"Now it is a dark time...."

"After the hearing, Thomas...(was asked)...if he wanted to meet GM CEO Henderson."

"Why would I want to do that?"

Heh. Why, indeed.

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I don't normally comment on other stores by name, but the Bulletin has a John Stearns column about a couple of new or expanding furniture stores in Bend. The column points out that 7 furniture stores have closed or are closing.

In essence, both of these owners are certain that they will do well when everyone else is struggling. Both point to the 'high-end' niche.

I hope they're right. I certainly understand the need to push forward, because I often feel compelled to do the same. Not going down quietly, but actually upping the ante is sometimes the right thing to do.

So I'll just remind you of the information above:

17 building permits in Bend in May.

"Bend is in a Depression!"

13,500 unemployed, 15.6% unemployment, projected 2014 recovery.

7 furniture stores closing.

If ever there was a time to hunker down....

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Finally, a little shout out to H.Bruce Miller. I hope you're on vacation and enjoying yourself. I've been missing your contributions to Wandering Eye and your comments on the other blogs.

Um...where are you?

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