Friday, July 11, 2008

What a drag it is....

One thing I didn't anticipate about getting older is that I couldn't stay awake at night. I used to watch my Mom nod off in her chair at night, and wonder how that could happen. Nowadays, I find myself trying to make sense of the same paragraph several times, and then waking up with a snort.

It's really cut into my reading time. I used to turn off the telly around 11:00 and read for a couple more hours, at least.

I wake up earlier too, but that isn't my natural reading time.

I've watched T.V. less over the last month or two than I have in years. The networks really broke the connection this year. I got so tired of waiting for shows, that I gave up.

I also can't overcome the negative effects of beer, anymore, either. I still like to drink, but the cost is just too high ordinarily.

I woke up with minor gargoyle eyes -- it's obviously an allergy, or something. I know I have severe reactions to burning sage, and I think sometimes it depends on what kind of stuff is burning in the wildfires.

I usually don't care much for over the counter medications; I think cold pills are worst than the disease, most of the time. Tried some visine, this morning though and it seemed to help.

Going to head into work this morning, but then try to get out of downtown before the race starts. Thankfully, Pat doesn't seem to mind working these festivals, which may account partly for why I don't complain as much.

The quail are safe. I think our cat has forgotten them. When they are nesting, they are nearly invisible.

Another thing that happens when you get older -- you talk about health. Have I told you about my prostrate?

The Bulletin seems to be coming around a bit: the articles on real estate seem a bit more in the downbeat. But everything you need to know comes from the following stats:

June, 2005 Housing sales: 296
June, 2006 248
June, 2008 114

Or this:

Feb., 2008 56

Or this:

"In Bend, builders submitted an average of 25 new building permits per month from January through June...."


It appears that the employment around here has switched over to commercial. In that vein, I offer the following from Keypoint Partners site: (And submit for your consideration that anything that hasn't already started being built -- won't be.)

When the credit crunch first broke in earnest last fall and froze the U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) market in its tracks, the most bullish prognosticators predicted a mere blip. Many expected issuance in the U.S. to be down from $237 billion in 2007, but thought it could reach $150 billion. The conservative estimates put the expected 2008 volume at $100 billion.

Today, those worst-case scenarios are looking wildly optimistic.

Through the end of June, U.S. CMBS issuance had reached just $12.1 billion according to Commercial Mortgage Alert, an industry newsletter. Overall, that's a 91 percent drop compared with the first six months of 2007. In June itself, $1.3 billion of CMBS bonds were sold. That was up slightly from the $900 million in May, but down more than 96 percent from the record $37.4 billion in June 2007.

In all, analysts are no longer calling for any kind of rebound this year. Analysts from J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., in fact, expect the second half of 2008 to be even quieter than the first, with full-year CMBS issuance volume totaling $20 billion.

What's the upshot of all this? Since CMBS loans accounted for about 70 percent of all commercial real estate financing in 2007, it means prospective borrowers still have no place to turn and the slowdown in investment sales that has plagued the sector won't be resolved any time soon...

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