When most of the specialty stores are gone.
Well, more like, sorta kinda miss us, as in "Whatever happened to so and so, I used to like going in there...."
I've started to explain why I think no market can really hold up at previous levels without the presence of brick and mortar stores with one phrase: "Out of sight, Out of mind."
Which might seem ridiculous, considering the omniscient presence of the Internet. I mean, EVERYTHING is there, probably cheaper, and only a button push away from showing up on your door.
Still -- I'll stick to my observation. I can't totally explain it, but 30 years of retail has shown me over and over again, that the less physical presence of a particular brand, the less it sells.
Sure you can get just about any brand of sports card online, cheaper. But frankly -- who cares anymore?
I think the air will just slowly go out of the tire -- so slowly no one will understand it until it's too late. Some will prosper, but most...will not. I think no market can truly do well once it becomes dominated by the online sales.
Books, music, games, toys -- everything will make less overall than they did before the advent.
Of course, the best solution is to have a mix of everything: small stores, big stores, and online.
But will they be smart enough to understand that?
Nope.
Not until it's too late.
I know that everyone will disagree with this -- they'll think it's a ridiculous proclamation.
But do you want to bet? I'm saying that the overall sales numbers per capita in today's dollars will be less in 20 years than it is today. Not the amount of material -- there will probably be more of it than ever, and therein lies the problem. Because so much of it will be discounted -- even free. I'll refine that further -- there will be less overall PROFIT per purveyor than before.
But online is ether -- it only has a physical presence in our minds. The product exists when we think of it, when we go to look for it, when we push the button to shop.
And that, my friends, is not going to be anywhere near as stimulative as actually having the product right in front of you.
I just think people overall are underestimating the importance of brick and mortar stores, and they may not realize it until it's too late. It would relatively easy to keep brick and mortars around compared to trying to bring them back once they're gone.
Just saying.
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5 comments:
Would that really be a bad thing. Now really when you consider the amount of money wasted in this rampant consumerism focused society of ours would it really be a bad thing that someone might actually decide that needed something and to go find it, instead of spending money on a whim.
Maybe, just maybe they might actually save some of that money instead. It might actually get to the point that people could actually park inside of their garages, instead of using them as attached storage facilities for all of the junk they have purchased, but never really use.
I think a big problem is that people keep talking about comics and books as if they were the same situation as music and movies. With music or movies, the physical object was not usually why you bought it. The tangibility of it wasn't what was important, it's what's stored inside.
With books or comics, the art and the storage device are one and the same, making the tangible nature of it more valuable. You don't have to put a book into a CD player or a VCR, it just goes straight from the page to your brain. So, when these things get digitized, it loses a lot because you aren't holding it in your hands. It feels fake and empty.
Not to mention that it's not bery good on your eyes to read a whole novel on a screen.
RDC: Impulse purchases are not the only thing that bricks-and-mortar stores are good for. Before I buy a book I want to see and feel it. Before I buy a camera or a computer I want to put my hands on it. Before I buy a suit or a pair of shoes I need to try it on.
Ever try buying a pair of shoes on-line? I have. It was a disaster. I had to send three pairs back before I finally got a pair that fit right. Never again.
For some of those types stores birck and motor ones will remain. Most likely big box or some chain, but they will still exist.
Books, magazines, newspapers, comic books, music probaby not.
However, my response was not aimed at the question of are there things one wants to buy locally. It was aimed at the thesis presented in Duncan's post that the movement of product online will result in lower sales or atleast lower sales revenue, some of which would result from less sales as a result of demand generated from walking through stores and some from lower prices.
" ... the thesis presented in Duncan's post that the movement of product online will result in lower sales or atleast lower sales revenue, some of which would result from less sales as a result of demand generated from walking through stores ..."
Oh, I think that'll definitely happen. It's pretty common for people to shop for stuff in stores, pick out something they like, then try to find it cheaper on-line. (I have to admit I've done it myself with camera gear and other electronics.) Without bricks-and-mortar stores, how is that going to happen? I'm not going to buy a camera if all I know about it is a picture and description I see on a Web site, and maybe some reviews by people I don't know and whose credentials I can't evaluate.
Not so sure physical bookstores will go extinct either, at least in large metro areas. I typically buy books through browsing. I go into a store without a particular book in mind and walk among the stacks, picking out books and leafing through them, until I find one that appeals to me. (NOTE: This is not the same as impulse buying; I go into the store with the intent to buy a book, although I don't know what the book will be.) I don't see how that experience can happen on a Web site.
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