Thursday, January 24, 2008

I've commented on the stock market the last couple of days. Since the market has actually gone UP since then, I'm done. To hell with them. I'll stand by my notion that they're just aliens funnin' with us.

In the REAL news of the day, what's left of our lumber industry, a mill in Prineville lays off workers. Central Oregon housing permits fall 52% in December. 76 houses planned for Deschutes, Crook, Jefferson, and Lake county combined. 76 houses.

Meanwhile, the Bulletin lets slip the little nugget that, with 2/3rds of the month gone, only 32 houses have sold. Let's say we double that....it would still be the lowest total in many a year.

Commercial building however continues at a torrid pace. Orvis is going to wipe out one of the Old Mill Parking lots. Cascade Bancorp has a horrible 4th quarter but still managed to hide behind the 'total' year, of which I suspect they spent most of time juggling figures to look good.

A big chunk of land is bought from foreclosure. (Umpqua Bank again, boy we took them for a ride. I'd love to count how many visits a day they get at Northwest Crossing.)
The land is so cheap, the builders can build cheaper houses. Oops. No doubt, we'll see houses of equal dimensions selling for a third more half a mile away.

Meanwhile, for my cheap shot of the day, the parks department doesn't have any money to open or develop any parks, but they have money to build an a brand new administration buildings. You know, to administer all those parks they aren't opening or developing....

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Dunc,

What follows is a philosophical rant on the Market. You brought up the tangent, its macro, Bend is more interesting, because we can grasp it.

This is exactly what happen after vietnam war, we were in debt, and nobody wanted the dollar, and in order to get foreign capital, which we need more now than then, we raised rates to 20% and they all came back to uncle-sam.

Today they're all leaving, but dems&repubs are in survival mode, they let USA go to shit during an election cycle, and a third party could be swept in, can't allow that to happen. So we postpone the day, the bill is still due, we just deferred it for two years.

*** break

I really think philosophically this is important, its the old Nader rant, there is no diff between dem & repub. They have made a mess of the economy.

Thus they'll band-aid until we get past the next election, there is no difference between hilly & mcCain ( guiliani's out ). This would be a perfect time for third "ROSS PEROT" type to swoop in, during the next year if they let us drop into a horrible recession. { Could still happen with Bloomberg, but he wouldn't be independent }

But NO, they'll raise FHA JUMBO to $700k, bring back zero-down party-on, ...

Trouble is the DOLLAR is dead, and now some will say that USA is done, I don't think so, as military study is my hobby. We have too many nukes to go down without a fight, we'll do a post vietnam 20% ROI that will bring the dollar back, but we can't do it until after the election.

Ramification?? DOW 5000, ... who cares inflation, ... Home prices will go up, for the next year JUMBO loans might move??

Then again the new package has to pass the senate, and DUMBYA has to sign it,...

I'm a life member of the NRA, and I still get their rag, and a year ago they were predicting hilly & guiliani. They were correct then, but guiliani just couldn't get the momentum. All these birds are going to take care of wall-street.

*

Effect on Bend?? Fuel will remain high, the SDC's will not be paid. Bend will lose population significantly over the next five years.