My carefully worked out budget has been completely thrashed.
Every quarter or so, there is a fifth shipping Wednesday. Theoretically, I should be able to take the three months worth of orders and divide them by 13 weeks to get a weekly average.
But the orders have come in at least 20% higher than that supposed average. I had left out the unfortunate fact that the publishers tend to hold back on product until just before summer.
Sales are down this month, as well. The street closures have had even more negative impact than usual, for some reason. So this will be a third month in a row with sales below last year, which by my reckoning is a trend.
It's not a question of losing money -- it's a question of not making as MUCH money as I'd hoped.
Back to the drawing board.
It's a valuable lesson -- once again, I need to factor in the 'worst' case scenario. That I won't get an "average" level of product, that I can't count on beating last year each and every month.
It doesn't really change a thing. Well, I am changing my estimate for the next quarter to take into account the lower sales and the higher weekly estimates. But basically, the strategy stays the same. Ironically, the strategy for making a profit and not losing money are exactly the same.
So I just need to pick myself up, dust myself off, and start all over again.
6 days ago