The Bulletin of 2010 finally comes around the thinking of the Bubble Bloggers of 2007.
Is there a gracious way to say, "I told you so?" Probably not. I certainly take no pleasure in others misfortunes.
And it's not have if my own business and finances haven't been impacted by this downturn.
The only real difference was I clearly saw it coming, and prepared for it. While others were expanding or adding expenses, I was cutting back on overhead; while others were piling on the debt, I was cutting it down to zero.
And to be honest, even I, careful as I was, took on a bad second loan that could've come back to haunt us. I was taking care of business at the store, but still let my desire to improve my home overcome my misgivings.
I knew it was coming, just not exactly when.
Nevertheless, it's like having the knowledge that someone is going to come up and smack you in the face. It doesn't hurt any less. You just may have the bandages and medication ready.
But, honestly, go back to third quarter of 2007 and read what Bend Economy Man, and a little later -- Bendbubble Two and me -- were saying, and compare that to what the local media and experts were saying. All our alarmist talk was, if anything, an underestimation.
So pardon me if I take a little pride in that.
It's not been as clear as that ever since, by the way. I keep holding to my original observations that:
1.) The bust lasts longer than you expect.
2.) It goes deeper than you expect.
3.) Get on with your life and don't expect a turnaround anytime soon.
4.) If there is a recovery, it will happen so slowly that you won't notice until it's already here.
I mean, this has lasted so long now, that most of the bubble bloggers have even disappeared. Also, people are usually folding up and leaving Bend without a whole lot of fanfare, so you could almost put a gauze over the lense and pretend she's still pretty.
It takes a lot of guts to write what Andrew Moore wrote and I give him credit. I also will credit the Bulletin for looking the problem square in the face. I don't think they were trying to fool us three years ago, I just don't think they believed it would happen.
We've got a long way to go. Years, probably. Years of dragging sales, foreclosures and bankruptcies.
The one prediction that most of us bubble bloggers missed was downtown. I had a suspicion that downtown wouldn't empty out, but I couldn't be sure. I think I have an explanation for that, too. In my next blog.
1 week ago