4% of prices changes are up, Quick buy a house!

Bratton has called a new bottom in the housing market? (Bulletin, 4/18/10).

Come on. Really? Do these guys in the real estate industry have any credibility left?

Why would we listen to that? Once again, all we have to do is go to the Bend Economy Bulletin Board and see what prices are actually doing:

Out of the last 110 prices changes, going back to April 13, 106 are down, and 4 are up. This ain't a guess, or an opinion, these are actual price changes, up or down.

Wow. You wouldn't want to miss that-there bottom. (Just like you wouldn't have wanted to miss the bottom last year --- or the year before --- or probably next year at this time.)

Though I have to admit, 4% is a much higher level of price increases than I've seen in a long time...

Meanwhile, there were all of 38 housing permits issued in the tri-counties; which is about as low as I can remember it ever being, especially in the spring.

Never mind the record breaking quarter for foreclosures.

I just found out that two of my neighbor's houses, which I thought had sold, were instead rentals.
You got to wonder how many rentals are floating around waiting to go back on the market....

So one 'expert' thinks that housing median prices are lower because the tax credit is only really noticeable on the lower end of the price range, and not helping sell the higher range houses at all:

"Nobody's bought anything in the upper end, so in the whole market the price fell, only because of all the activity in the lower range...."

I had to read this a couple of times to try to understand his reasoning. But if I got it right, it's like, you know, I always wanted to get rid of the smartest kid in class because he was really ruining the grade curve...Wouldn't have made the class any smarter, but we would've LOOKED smarter!!

Or....the opposite, get rid of the dumbest kid in the class, and the smarter kid looks smarter. Something like that.

Uh, .....so, not having a tax credit will help sell more upper end houses? Well, hard to see that. So what you're saying is, not having tax credit will help make lower priced houses sell worse? So the median goes up?

Well, yeah, I guess if I have a store full of jewelry, and I only sell one high end ring and none of the lower end sell at all, my average sale price would be pretty high. Hey, I got it. I'll just get rid of everything lower priced! That's the ticket! Then I'll have wonderful median prices!!!!

I suppose trying to figure out this kind of reasoning is useless. Because it simply doesn't want to deal with reality, but a selected perception of reality....

Finally, because Bratton should never be allowed to live it down, this is what he said in Feb., 2008:

“You’ve got 60 days to make that great buy, and then they’re onto us, and Bend is going to lead the nation out of this housing recession we’re in,” Bratton said to cheers and applause in the Riverhouse Convention Center. “Why not? It’s gonna start here, OK? So I say make the move — don’t miss the boat.”

Tongue in cheek or not, it was an ill advised thing to say and revealed volumes about the real estate state of mind. Yesterday's Bulletin article was full of smoke and mirror statements by real estate professionals, but nothing from anyone approaching an objective third party observer.