LITTLE NUGGETS OF WISDOM I CAN'T STAND TO NOT PUBLISH ON MY OWN BLOG.
Because I can't stand to have my little gems of wisdom (or as I tell Bilbo about plastering his words all over the place, 'turds of wisdom') and because I know that not everyone here goes to BB2, I'm repeating a series of comments I made over there about the creation of Bubbles:
HE SAID THAT I SAID THAT HE SAID THAT I SAID....
It started with Bilbo saying that I had said that one couldn't stop a bubble from happening. (Earlier, he had accused me of not reading Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.) Because it involves good old anonymouse Bilbo, the language isn't for the faint-hearted.
Of Course, you COULD stop a bubble. It's just that no one ever does. Too many people making money.
What I said is, you can't START a bubble. (Shit, Buster, they're trying ALL THE TIME! Every new business, every new product, thinks they are going to take over the world.)
What it comes down to, people think they can CONTROL a bubble, manipulate a bubble. The other guy will always be the last fool, not you.
And bubbles ALWAYS end badly, lower than where they started, with everyone at death's door.
Only a lucky few will escape before it all collapses, and a few others will get out intact.
And yes, I've equated fads with bubbles, that's my premise, if you don't buy it, I understand.
I've read POPULAR DELUSIONS. A more boring and dry book would be hard to find....
You and I are never going to agree on this, Bilbo. We have different world views. You see Evil Genius, and I see Chaos.
Ordinarily I'm a great believer in cause and effect, but when it comes to bubbles, I'm an agnostic.
I think they're a mystery.
I could be wrong about this, but even if it's true that bubble are created, who decides what becomes big and what doesn't?
So it becomes a moot point.
I'll give you this much. It is possible to recognize a bubble early, to promote it, to be part of the TIPPING POINT, and making it really happen.
The biggest benefiters to the bubbles, are people who were accidentally (on purpose? Luck goes to the prepared?) positioned.
In Bend, you have the Hollerns, the Coats, the Wards, the Miller, sitting on what had been, up until 15 years ago, fairly worthless property.
The other people who can profit are the few survivors of the last bubble who have no consciouses and are willing to screw people in the new bubble.
And you have a few survivors like me who are just trying to survive with their businesses and integrity intact.
But as Tim said, we'll be buried under fetid corpses....
To Which, Bilbo answered:
"Bullshit dunc, you haven't read the book, and if you did you skimmed, you were bored, ... you don't like reality.
Your a sci-fi guy, you like fake worlds truth bores the fuck out of you."
I just told you, Bilbo, I did read the book.
Must be nice to ignore everyone else's reality.
I gagged my way through it.
The only interesting parts were the South Sea bubble, and the Tulip Madness.
It was like reading The Gangs of New York. You force your way through because there are some fascinating elements.
But you wish a modern writer would update the info in a more entertaining fashion.
Jeebus dunc, just let go, I could start a fucking bubble anytime I wish.
HEY, KIDS, LET'S START A BUBBLE!
Ummmm, go right ahead?
Spend a fortune of time and money trying to create a bubble.
If you succeed, you will be hailed a genius. If you fail, we'll never hear from you.
Like I said, it begs the point -- why do some things take off and not others? It can't be just brains, and money.
It's something more mysterious.
In your view, I'd have to say that the housing bubble inflaters were awfully nice to wait for the Nasdaq bubble inflaters to burst first.
One bubble at a time? Benefiting only one element?
Accident explains it more, fertile ground, maybe, but the EXPLOSION (not just 'hot' product, that can be created by advertising, but BUBBLE magnitude is way, way bigger.
Unaccountably hugely delusional.
If ten thousands monkeys set out to create a bubble, and one succeeds, is he lucky or a evil genius?
You could write a book about how this one evil genius monkey figured it all out, and find all the reasons in hindsight.
I guarantee you there are ten million monkeys out there right now, trying to create wildly successful, delusionally profitable trends or product.
General Mills right now is expending millions on product development and advertising, trying to create the hottest cereal ever.
Ford is trying to convince you their next model is the new Mustang.
And so on.
It's the "Sam Walton" is a genius school of thought.
If you start with 1000 stores 50 years ago, one will end up being the biggest. Then we can all go back and see why, and give it all kinds of importance.
But to me, it's like asking why Saturday is the busiest day of the week in retail. Oh, because people are off work, or whatever.
But what if the busiest day was Tuesday, then we'd find all the reasons.
And alternative explanation is:
ONE OF THE DAYS OF THE WEEK, BY DEFINITION, WAS GOING TO BE THE BIGGEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
It's simple statistics.
So, yeah, Walton did some things right, but if it hadn't been him, it WOULD'VE been someone else. And we'd be calling them, CHEAP SHIT FROM CHINA, either way.
And Target would be trying to position themselves as the classier Walmart, but it would still be, "WE ARE COOLER THAN WALMART, BUT WE HAVE CHEAP SHIT FROM CHINA, TO
3 days ago