So, is there like a slowdown, or what?

(P.S. I ended up posting the other 6 rules for my bookstore on yesterday's date. Oops.)

Hey, it's only been 2 1/2 weeks! Like reading chicken entrails.....

For me, January is especially difficult to gauge. It's going to feel slower than Christmas, no matter what. I'm left with trying to remember what last January felt like.

Secondly, there are normal statistical variances. The smaller the store, the bigger the normal swings can be; Wal-Mart has so many stores, that variances are evened out. So, a 10% swing could just be happenstance.

Third, for my store especially, sales are often predicated on the product I carry. There have been many the time when sales in my store were going great when the rest of the country sucked, and vice versa.

I could give you sales figures, which are within the 10% variance I talked about above. I could tell you we're down about that much, but frankly, because I've been careful in my buying and because I knew that some of the product I was carrying was cooling, this is pretty much what I expected.

So it's really difficult to weigh all the factors. I also have Linda's store to compare, and the BookMark is doing great, which casts doubts on my 'feelings.'


So with all those caveats out of the way.

Are we seeing a slowdown?

My feeling, and it's completely anecdotal and unreliable is.....yes. I think things are slowing down.

I suppose what I'm really wondering is this: how many of the downtown business, heck Bend businesses, were over-estimations of demand in the first place? That is, I think even if the business climate was going swimmingly, many of these businesses were in for a bit of a surprise.

With a downturn, even a small one, I think they're in for a shock.

Something along the line of: they were expected 1000.00 a day in sales, which was never in the cards. If the business climate was positive, they might still have managed to sell, say, in the 600.00 to 700.00 range. Disappointing, but probably not out of the rationalizing range.

But if sales actually come in at say 500.00, that is going to really hurt. I've been totally surprised by how many businesses have opened in January or so late in December not to do them much good. Wow. Even in normal times, they have six months of slow business to look forward to...

I've always said though, that downtown Bend businesses are tenacious.

It's a slow process. Ask me in a couple of years.