There was a time, and it wasn't all that long ago, when I think I was at least aware of almost every retail business in Bend. Even five years ago, the opening of a store was noticeable, it wasn't that hard to keep track. Hell, ten years ago, it seemed like an event, and 15 or 20 years ago, it was a major event.

Now. Pffffffff. All over the place.

I take home the weekly papers on Wednesday night and just shake my head. It seems like every week, there are a dozen or more new stores advertising, often located on the west side. Why on the west side? Do people really think that is the center of retail? Also way on the east side, even more puzzling. I noticed that Glass Symphony didn't take long to move from N.W. Crossing to a Downtown location. I figure most of the people opening retail on the west side and the east side are newcomers who just haven't quite figured out the traffic flow.

They've all got oh, so tasteful names, clever, artistic logo's and shiny, bright faces in the photo's.

You got to love retail, though. There's Karen Bandy, who's had a shop in downtown Bend for years, advertising a 'new' location, but from what I understand, she's giving up the 'retail' storefront to concentrate on her design business. On the other hand, you have Designer's Jewelry looking as though they are going out of business, but who....evidently isn't. A couple of days ago, I got a cheap looking key in the mail for a promotion that was eerily similar to the one that Saxon's used when they moved.
In other words, I'm guessing an outside promotional outfit is running the sale, but while they never quite use the words "going out of business", you really have to parse the words to realize they aren't. Seems kind of tacky to me. Sorry, Marti, it just does.

But why is it I see older businesses going out, while new businesses pop up all over the place? Are the new generation just better at it? If anything, I suspect the opposite. Nothing trumps experience, in my opinion. And if old timers like Karen Bandy don't see a future in retail in downtown Bend, she knows what she's doing. All the older stores are just further into their business cycle.

The new businesses haven't really confronted the reality of business just yet. They are all still bright eyed and fluffy tailed and enamored by the idea of their little dream business. They have the best attitude, the best inventory, the luxury of no history of mistakes, probably a cash reserve, or at the least a credit reserve, the newest fixtures and that wonderful enthusiasm that will carry them a long ways.

So far, there seems to be more than enough people willing to take the place of fallen soldiers. There's been a line. Lately, there's been an explosion. It's a lagging indicator, I believe. Incubated in the glory days of 2004 - 2006, and only now coming online. It's the froth at the top of the glass, spilling over.

The good thing about this, is that most of these businesses will last a few years, even if they start losing money right off the bat. There are probably plenty of businesses in the works. From a purely mercenary point of view, this is good for my business. Plenty of activity and no boarded up storefronts, and lots of curious shoppers.

But every time I doubt myself, every time I think maybe I'm being too negative, I need only look around and compare my neighbors from 25 years ago, from 20, from 15, from 10 from 5 years ago, and if anything....I'm giving these new businesses the benefit of the doubt.

I feel like an old veteran who has just got a bunch of replacements and I know that they don't have a chance.

I'm conflicted about it.

I hope all these new businesses are great successes. I'm glad they are there.

I just can't figure out how this has happened, or how it's going to turn out well.