Thursday, November 15, 2007

No great observation here, but I'm noticing way more of the amenity type businesses opening all of a sudden. I mean, we've been talking about them for a couple of years, and they've been opening all along, but suddenly there seems to be a jump in the number, and an inflation of the high concept that is very noticeable. Interesting timing, and I think the result of the surge of newcomers since 2004.

For instance, the number of kid's clothing stores, both new and used, has jumped by 5 or 6 or 8 or something. Seems like every time I open the paper, I see a new one. Number of indy bookstores in Bend and Redmond? Jumped from 1 to 5. And no one just opens a bookstore anymore, or a clothing store. No, there has to be a coffee shop or a deli attached.

Back when I was reading Inc. Magazine and Entreprenuer, I'd notice that stores would become fads. A certain concept or type of store would be trumpeted. And I read these articles and think, that's crazy. A bunch would open, and a few years later some of them would've adapted into something real and rest would be gone.

High concept is all well and good. But we live in a nuts and bolts, bread and butter, meat and potato world. The other stuff is garnishing. You aren't going to make your money on the extra's. Some of it branding, I suppose, a way to make your store stand out. As long as the owner understands that.

For instance, if you are a jewelry store, I'm sure you love to have really interesting, spectacular bling. But I'm betting you still make your money on engagement and wedding rings, etc.

I could be wrong about this. I'm not sure I understand the frizzy businesses that I'm seeing open. I'm very thankful for both the walk-in traffic who is attracted to the high concept stuff I carry, and the regulars who buy my standard stuff week after week. I need both of them. I doubt I could survive without both of them.

But I'm very careful not to limit my selection based on some high concept notion.

I suppose some of these high concept amenity businesses will find out after opening what their bread and butter product will be, if they last long enough, and come down off their clouds. But to depend on the snazzy, look at me, product means they are depending on making their money in the vacation and holiday months even more than usual, and god help them if those tourists stop coming for any reason.

I suppose there is also a possibility that the amenity vagrants will flock downtown and buy a bunch of unnecessary but cute stuff. But mostly, I just seem them spending the same kind of money as everyone else, or just standing there going, "how quaint."

Just once I'd like to see a batch of customers come in and say, "I'm rich and money is no object and I'll take two of that incredibly high price thing over there." (Of course, I understand they aren't going to announce that they're rich, but I don't see behavior that would signal they're rich, either....the I'll take this and this and this....")

Never happens.

But I think in the minds of some of these new amenity businesses, they think it is going to happen everyday.

Good luck with that.

20 comments:

Anonymous said...

"I'll take this and this and this...."

My wife used to work in a high-priced clothing store for women. They would go the whole day with hardly a sale.

Just as they're closing up on a seemingly pointless day, one of their core customers would come in and literally say "I'll take this and this and that," and add $500 to the till, just like that.

So maybe some businesses can count on those infrequent, big spenders.

Duncan McGeary said...

Yeah, my neighbor jewelry guy will sometime announce a sale of some astronomical price that would keep me in business for a week.

But what happens if too many days go by without that happening.

I think I'd rather count on my nuts and bolts regulars than count on mana from heaven.

Is that high-price clothing store still there?

Anonymous said...

No, the store is gone now. It's moved to one of those "outlet" malls along the highway, kind of out in the middle of nowhere. It had been in a 1980s-era mall in Madison, Wisconsin that was fairly dead. It's been converted to one of those malls where there's no inside corridor -- the entrances to stores face directly to the street.

RDC said...

The book store/ coffe shop combination is actually a pretty good one. However, I think you potentially end up with more damaged product that way when people go grap a magazine and read it in the coffee portion and then leave it when they are done, never paying for it.

Also note that the "rich" tend to watch what they spend money on to get value. It is usually those that are living month to support trying to support a "rich" lifestyle that will spend money without concern.

Duncan McGeary said...

Actually, too, Jeff, I'm not so much talking about high priced or high end but high concept.

For instance, not to pick on anyone, but there is a dress shop on Minnesota that sells 'soft fabric' clothing. Not too long ago, there was a shop that sold only black and white clothing. That sort of thing.

Given a big enough population, anything is possible. I just read a comment from another comic shop that sold 50 (50!!?) of the new Dark Tower graphic novel. I've sold 2. Obviously, he could probably specialize in just being a comic shop, whereas I need to diversify.

Duncan McGeary said...

I've had other downtown business owners assure me that these people exist. (Though you'd think there would be some rich baby-boomer who would want my 300.00 Frazetta statue -- or at least would ask, of if they did ask, wouldn't scoff....)

But I'll stand by my contention that depending on these people isn't a safe bet. First of all, we shouldn't mistake what has happened over the last three years for reality. Up until 5 years ago, I'd be hard pressed to think of a high end specialty store that did well, except perhaps some restuarants and I simply don't understand them.

So many businesses may have done o.k. over the last three years, but really have very little margin of error. If they haven't established a good solid local business. I just don't think the population of Bend is quite big enough to support too high a concept. And that margin is disappearing for awhile, I believe.

I've always chosen not to cater to a small group of big spenders at the expense of a larger group of moderate or smaller spenders. And, at least in my business, you pretty much have to chose which.

Duncan McGeary said...

I think, for a small business, it adds many, many levels of complexity and cost.

My wife and I choose to do nothing but used books at her store, and we've not been sorry.

For example, we'd almost certainly have to add an employee. Cost of the product, waste, damage, health department inspections, space and equipment, etc. etc.

I think it looks better than it actually plays out.

RDC said...

No doubt it adds complexity and would require additional employees. It just seems to be one of those cases where two businesses are somewhat synergistic. Basically they do need to be thought of as two separate business which are just colocated

THe economics comes down to the use of floor space and what generates the greater return.

Another example of synergy was when two business owners in Little Rock noticed that many of the customers in one owner's restaurant would go play in the other's arcade before or after dinner. They got together and the synergistic result was Dave and Busters.

Anonymous said...

I've always chosen not to cater to a small group of big spenders at the expense of a larger group of moderate or smaller spenders. And, at least in my business, you pretty much have to chose which.

*

This is why you survived 25+ years. When you focus on the BIG deals, you miss the little stuff that ad's up and pays the rent. The BIG deals are all random, and the little stuff is what pays the bills.

Too often I think in most business, folks focus on the BIG-ONE, rather than little stuff. It's like the common factor of very rich people, they'll stoop over to pick up a dime, but a 'fake rich' wouldn't.

Wealth has always been about the fact that its easy to make money, but hard to keep it, Bend is largely about spending money, with no possibility of replacing.

We have killed this dead-horse many times, but people come to Bend with money, and leave with little to nothing.

Anonymous said...

I've always chosen not to cater to a small group of big spenders at the expense of a larger group of moderate or smaller spenders. And, at least in my business, you pretty much have to chose which.

*

This is why you survived 25+ years. When you focus on the BIG deals, you miss the little stuff that ad's up and pays the rent. The BIG deals are all random, and the little stuff is what pays the bills.

Too often I think in most business, folks focus on the BIG-ONE, rather than little stuff. It's like the common factor of very rich people, they'll stoop over to pick up a dime, but a 'fake rich' wouldn't.

Wealth has always been about the fact that its easy to make money, but hard to keep it, Bend is largely about spending money, with no possibility of replacing.

We have killed this dead-horse many times, but people come to Bend with money, and leave with little to nothing.

Duncan McGeary said...

Besides, I would literally eat and drink the profits.

I can only stare at a crumbly cake for so long before it starts to stare back at me.

Anonymous said...

Hey Duncan,
Not that you'd remember me, but I was a regular customer of your's about 14-17 years ago. I would come after school, during school, on the weekends...all to spend my precious babysitting money on Sandman and Elfquest comics. Your shop is one of the integral pieces of my childhood. Imagine my surprise when, whilst doing some research on my own website, I come upon this blog of yours. You see, I'm the "new comer/rich person/Californian/" opening one of the many "amenity type" stores in Bend. Across the street from you, actually. My partner and I are opening treefort (the urban kids clothing and gift store) that you seemed to get such a chuckle out of. By the way, The definition of Urban is: relating to or characteristic of a city OR TOWN. Rather than trying to change Bend, we want to be a part of the growing desire for independent, edgy, and unique stuff for kids. It's supposed to be about fun, not snootiness.
Problem I have with your blog is,
I'm not a new comer, I've been in Bend practically all of my life and working retail since I was 15.
I'm also not rich, I took out a business loan just like you did to open the shop I always wanted to.
Oh, and I'm not a Californian either. My family lives here, my daughter goes to school here, and my husband and I pay and have always paid our taxes here in Oregon.
Also, I resent that you actually suspect that we think it is such a great idea to go into construction in the busy holiday season just to be open for the slow time of year. In fact, we signed that lease back in June and intended to be open within a few months. The problem was that the city laid the smackdown on us with permits. Between the compensations of our landlords and the determination to get through the curve balls that life throws, we hope to do our best despite these obstacles.
So rather than spending all your free time blogging about how much you hate new businesses and laughing at how foolish their concepts are, take into consideration that we could be your allies and actually support each other. Maybe being so self aggrandizing is working for you. I personally would like to see each and every one of these small shops not only stay open, but succeed. I feel like it can only affect me and the community positively.
I'd love for you to have something nice to say about us some day, however, if people continue to be directed to treefort from your blog, I guess any press is good press!

Cheers!
Astacia Davis
astacia@treefortkids.com

Duncan McGeary said...

I certainly wish you the best of luck, Astacia.

I hope you'll take what I say as constructive criticism.

Duncan McGeary said...

This whole blog thing is a continual learning process.

As I said on the Bend Economy Bulletin Board in reference to Becky Breeze, I should never say anything here that I wouldn't say to someone's face.

My neighbor today pointed out that the Treefort might be running into permit problems, as Astacia has confirmed.

I just have to try to be fair, and to realize I don't always know what's going on behind the scenes.

Still, if this blog turns into such fuzzy generalities and or wimpy opinions, it won't be much worth to anyone, including me.

Anonymous said...

The absence of true reporting the BULL, creates a void and people are attracted to these forums.

99% of the time Duncan is FULL OF SHIT, this is why he is called Ned Flanders, Mr. Nice Guy, that wouldn't write anything he wouldn't say to someone's face.

Sadly, much of what Duncan's writes about downtown is true. The truth generally hurts.

Any DODO that thinks that high-end spenders are going to keep their nose out of the water are delusional. Look at our most successful eatery downtown - Super Burrito $3, e.g. is how you will survive.

Anonymous said...

Just to clarify, my business partner and I both agree with a lot of the points Duncan makes about the constant death and rebirth of businesses downtown and the hideous construction it brings. I agree that some of the newcomers have delusions of grandeur. I'm not sure if that last comment was about me, but, I assure you that I am no dodo. My market is not aimed at high end spenders, I am making it a point NOT to carry overpriced foo-foo items. I am just doing what I like to do, much like Duncan does. I don't expect to get rich from it, I just expect to enjoy coming to work every day. Well, maybe not every day, but you get the idea...

Duncan McGeary said...

As you can see about his comments about me, Bendbust calling someone a dodo is pretty mild for him.

I really do wish your business every success and look forward to seeing it.

Anonymous said...

“We’re marketing more than just a product—we’re marketing a lifestyle—and the Bend lifestyle is a perfect fit.”


DUNCAN, remember that VCB is the city of bend, and this is millions of dollars of taxpayer money at work, to bring people here to buy condos.

Bend VCB Partners With Merrell

By Press Release

Posted 11.15.2007
(BEND, Ore.)--Mention the words Bend, Oregon, to anyone with a passion for outdoor recreation, and they immediately conjure up images of endless singletrack, meandering trout streams, untracked powder and majestic mountain peaks. Similarly, the word Merrell brings to mind images of hiking, climbing, running or simply relaxing in comfort and style.

That’s precisely the thinking behind a new and unique partnership between the Bend Visitor & Convention Bureau and Merrell, whereby the popular outdoor footwear and apparel manufacturer has become ‘The Official Outfitter of the Bend Visitor & Convention Bureau.’

“The Bend brand is a unique combination of recreation, coupled with the energy of a vibrant, cosmopolitan mountain town that appeals to active people of all ages,” said Doug LaPlaca, President and CEO of the Bend Visitor & Convention Bureau. “This is a great opportunity for us to align the destination of Bend with the world renown premium brand of Merrell, and extend our marketing reach to a new group of prospective visitors.”

While corporate sponsorships are nothing new, partnerships between consumer product companies such as Merrell and leisure travel destinations such as Bend represent a marketing concept that both parties believe has significant untapped potential.

“It’s no longer a secret that Bend is one of the country’s most appealing destinations for outdoor enthusiasts, and Merrell’s commitment to such a lifestyle makes this a great partnership,” said Sue Harvey Brown, Marketing Manager for Merrell. “We’re marketing more than just a product—we’re marketing a lifestyle—and the Bend lifestyle is a perfect fit.”

As part of the agreement, Merrell will provide financial and product support to the Bend Visitor & Convention Bureau for cooperative marketing programs. The BVCB and Merrell will also work together to cooperatively market and promote each other’s respective brands in sales, marketing and collateral materials.

About the Bend Visitor & Convention Bureau:
The Bend Visitor & Convention Bureau is a non-membership, non-profit economic development organization dedicated to promoting tourism on behalf of the City of Bend. For more information or to order a complimentary Official Visitor’s Guide to Bend, contact the Bend Visitor & Convention Bureau at 1-800-949-6086 or visit www.visitbend.com.

About Merrell:
For more than 26 years, Merrell has been providing outdoor enthusiasts with quality performance footwear. What began as a regional brand in the Green Mountains of Vermont, now roams the world as an international leader in footwear and apparel. From all-leather hiking boots to the moc that created the “aftersport” category and hundreds of quality designs for adults and children, Merrell continues to re-invent comfort and style for active outdoor enthusiasts. For more information visit www.merrell.com.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Astacia...

If you read Dunc's blog, he's really more wary about the possibility of success given the outrageous cost of actually locating downtown, nowadays. A LOT of these amenity businesses that could survive at $1.25/sf, cannot live at $2.50. NO WAY. No one HOPES you perish, it's like climbing a mountain: Few die on the South Sister, but plenty die on Everest. You purge resources at a horrendous rate nowadays to be downtown, and it ends up killing the majority. It ended up killing lots of people at $1.75/sf.

That said, you are a smart enough dude to do the Shopify thing! Nice.

http://treefortkids.myshopify.com/

You're doing what I *wish* Duncan would :-)

Anonymous said...

This is all about 'lifestyle' and money and like duncan said, 'lifestyle' is a delusion. Borgman CEO of Les Schwab, wants to commute from Awbrey to Juniper Ridge, and his quest for that lifestyle, tore a city apart.

***

Something stunk from Day One, but only now are we discovering the dead cat under the porch. - bem

***

This WHOLE DEAL was setup by Garzini & BORMAN years ago.

1.) Wait until Les Schwab dies

2.) City Council forces master-plan ( county requirement ) to be done by KURATEK, an out-of-town hitman, with dog&pony show - cooper. This way they didn't have a local Oregon firm question legality. The exact same game that KURATEK did here, he did prior at San Mateo, CA. Even the Master-Plan, is largely the same work that Cooper did for him there, and did the dog&pony for him.

3.) Do everything in secret in violation of country Juniper-Ridge deed. Develop a master-plan, but have NO intention of ever using it, just get it in place, so as to pacify the community, and show pretty pictures. Bait & Switch.

4.) Dec 06, a few days after Les Schwab the 'man' is DEAD, BORGMAN has secret meeting with city-council present, and Anderson signs off secret purchase deal. Later a waiver is backdated to make it appear that the agreement was always public.

5.) In April of 2007, Les Schwab ( borgman ) produces a CC&R written by Les Schwab attorneys. It stipluates that Les Schwab has complete control over all of Juniper Ridge, and adjoining land owned by Walmart. Walmart is PISSED, and a war has begun.

6.) October 2007, the Bulletin announces that "juniper ridge" is dead, and that Kuratek is out, Anderson is fired. Behind the scenes city council approves a payoff of Kuratek for $2.5M, for services rendered.

7.) Fall of 2007 Les Schwab starts access to land courtesy of city money, and labor by Knife-River. Plan is to have the the building done, before it can be stopped, even though the Bulletin publicly announces that Juniper Ridge is over.

8.) Anderson trys to convert Juniper Ridge into "Les Schwab Urban Renewal District", and demands tax from Walmart & Lowes. A hornets nest is created and Anderson is fired.

9.)Juniper Ridge becomes a 1500 acre tire-flipping and rotation park. Garzinis dream of the biggest, most profitable privatized prison in America is born.

10.) Garzini & Borgman become the richest men in Oregon.