I wanted to reproduce my April 6th entry in part:

Quote:

Friday, April 6, 2007

In every bubble I've experienced, there is a period of grace at the end, when it is still possible to get your affairs in order. To escape. You have to be paying attention, you need to trust your instincts, but that moment is there.

I do believe it's possible Bend is at that moment.

A couple of days ago, there were three positive economic news items on the front page of the Bulletin. I then turned to my U.S.A. Today, and there were four negative economic news items on the front page.

It's spring, and if houses are ever going to start selling, it is now. But if they aren't selling, we aren't going to really hear about it for another few months. It's still a positive moment in time.

We are the second fastest growing urban area in America. But that information is from last year. You can ride that wave of positive news, but paddling out to sea expecting another big wave is more questionable. There will be plenty of people who will look at the improved sales this spring, and the positive news in the newspaper, and think the lull is over, good times will continue. That's what gives you your opportunity. You have a period of grace.

End Quote.

That window of opportunity is closed. The music has stopped, and if you aren't sitting down, it's too late. It is now common knowledge, and once everyone knows, there is no way to escape. The credit crunch is just the mechanism that ends the bubble; if it hadn't been that, it would have been something else. Because bubbles always pop.

I have learned to never wish for downturns. It hurts everyone. But I admit I'm really fascinated by what will happen now.

Is Bend infested with rich folk, who will laugh off the downturn and continue shopping in the high-end specialty shops downtown?

Or is it more likely that we have alot of live large and borrow off equity and keep up with the Jones? And how long are they going to keep buying seasons passes at Mt. Bachelor, and country club memberships and a new S.U.V. every year? How likely are they to keep a money losing store or resturaunt open when the house has just lost a third of its value, the no-doc second mortgage just jumped percentage points, and the wife has lost her job at the title company?

It is going to be interesting.