Tuesday, August 7, 2007

As a completely casual observer -- I only know what I read in the newspapers -- I'm completely puzzled as to how Brenneke at Broken Top thinks he can possibly win against:

The current residents, who have verbal and written agreements, the sympathy of the public (as least as much sympathy as well-off gated community residents are likely to get), and residency being 9/10ths of the law.

Bauhofer and Tetherow, who also apparently have verbal and written agreements, as well as being at least as well-heeled and motivated to fight for what they want.

The city planning, who I would assume wouldn't look kindly to throwing out both the spirit and the letter of land planning.

What's his game? Is it a form of extortion? Look what I'll do, unless you buy me out?
The more outrageous his plans, the more motivated everyone will be to get him out of there. It seems to me that there ought to be a way to find out if he really has the where-with-all to buy the place, or it's just a big, empty threat. Money for nothing.


Meanwhile, over on the UGB front. The big boys are stepping forward and saying, hey, how about us? It sounds as though the boundary would have to be doubled to accommodate all of them as well as Juniper Ridge as well as prudent expansion.

Someone isn't going to be happy. But is the answer to double the amount of UBG?
Why not just throw out land planning altogether? Oh, wait. It's state law. Interesting, the way it will play out. Especially since we'll probably see some westside subdivisions turn into ghost towns, in the meantime. But I get the impression that we are talking small rich on the westside, and big rich at Tetherow, etc.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Duncan,

I'm glad that your paying attention to UGB.

Note that yes, its State Law, created in 1972 by SB100, and administered by LCDC.

Here in Eastern Oregon, they have tried to have it both ways, by saying we MUST grow using UGB, but NOT following the laws and rules of UGB. Nobody in Salem has ever cared about Central Oregon.

It's all odd SB100 was created by Gray & Hollern ( Sunriver & Black-Butte ), both timber men, that got SB100 passed under republican Tom McCall. The carrot for these timber men ( the richest men in Oregon ) was tax-exemption on forest land.

Then jump 30 years later, and the land has sat tax-free, and now its time to divide and sell. They got to avoid taxes using the law, but they never quite felt comfortable with the liberal carrot, e.g. UGB and protecting farm and forest land.

To date the liberal carrot simply never got implemented in eastern-oregon, but did in the Willamette Valley.

This is the essence of the story.

Lastly, Gray & Hollern, with SB100 locked out all other resorts after there's was done, and thus created and enriching monopoly.

Anonymous said...

Duncan,

We know that the events are out of hand in downtown Bend. Tetherow just hired from Old Mill a gal who's only job is event coordination and PR @ tetherow.

We know that The Source's primary job in town is Event Notification and PR. We also know that the so called 'publisher' of the source Aaron Switzer, also owns quite a few of the downtown events that take place continually. So in effect the Source is a vehicle to market its own events.

We know that Black-Butte and Sunriver were used to bring ten's of thousands of wealthy people to Central Oregon, and many bought. We know that ALL the events are to keep them entertained.

My question for you or someone else is what is the actual relationship with Brooks Resources and "The Source" other than advertising and promoting their RE and Events?

I ask this because whenever I post anything that has "Brooks Resources" no matter how benign on "The Source" opinion site they always delete it within hours. Yet no matter how off the wall no other subject ever gets deleted.

HBM says that the Brooks-Scanlon has nothing to do with Brooks Resources, but even the Bulletin reported this past sunday. "Brooks Resources — formed in 1968 as the real estate arm of the old Brooks-Scanlon lumber company" Which pretty much explicitly says that Brooks-Scanlon & Brooks Resource are the same thing.

I have a suspicion that the 'real' owner and publisher for The Source is 'Brooks Resources', as in my forty years in Oregon, its always been the case that these small papers don't make enough from ads to publish, and there is always a rich guy behind the scenes.s

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

It's the Battle of Two Giant Asses, Brenneke & Bauhofer, as far as I'm concerned. And I'll probably write in my blog a little about this, but in this case Bauhofer is the Far Bigger Ass.

He'll Lose.

Anonymous said...

I see the issue is of transference. M37 says you can build for yourself, and invest in your land, ... but you cannot transfer it to another party, M49 says you can transfer your pre 1972 ( M37 ) rights to a third party.

What M49 will do is allow the BIG-BOYS ( friends of oregon ), via lawyers to transfer their pre 1972 holdings, which is mostly logging and farming, tax deferred by SB100 ( 1972 ).

The issue here is that our pre 1972 people don't want to put their own money into the projects, they want to transfer them to NEWYORK REITS ( friends of oregon )

Thus all that M49 is, is a fix so the big boyz can get richer as planned, M37 and M49 have NOTHING to do with little people creating something for their grandchildren.

M37 has been a bonanza for lawyers.

Nobody else has benefited. M49 will be a bonanza for bankers and realtors who can then actively sell the pre 1972 real-estate to out-of-state partys.

Anonymous said...

Brooks Resource used to be "Cash Poor, and Land Rich".

Today they're "Cash Poor, and House Rich". Trouble is Houses in Central Oregon no longer sell.

Thus now Brooks Resources will be in acts of desperation never seen before.

Currently the Big Push is a MONSTER development West of Summit High School. This development will be bigger than Shevlin.

Then there is the issue of UGB, Brooks is the largest holder of pre 1972 tax-exempt forest/farm land in Central Oregon. Trouble is the land will not sell, and pre 1972 people cannot develop it. Brooks has NO cash, and nothing to sell that people want ( like gold ).

Currently Brooks and their pet monkey at The Source, are pushing Measure-49, sort of a slut-sister of M37 that allowed pre 1972 people to build homes on their land, in spite of SB100 ( LCDC ).

With M37 Brooks will be able to transfer their VAST Central Oregon land-holdings to anyone they wish for fee or favor. That recipient of the transfer would then have FULL 1972 rights. Thus in effect with the passage of M37 all Brooks-Resource holdings would increase in value over-night, while all post 1972 holding would decrease in value in Central Oregon.

Brooks has really one BIG problem in Central Oregon. There are NO jobs, Certainly with M37 Brooks could give away vast land holdings to Fortune-500 corporations in hope of bringing jobs, which then would create demand for the 1,000's of unsellable Brooks homes.

Anonymous said...

I've had a bit of time to ponder Brenneke's 12 million offer for Broken Top. - duncan

( Duncan this is from June 2007, below was my response then, note everything I predicted has unfolded, e.g. the HOA went from $600/mo to $1200/mo, which will drive the existing people out, the extra $600/mo times 400 will easily generate cash for the investment. )

Have you actually seen the offer? The terms?

My guess the terms are like ...

1.) Everyone has to join the club, that live's there.

2.) New owner can make HOA's whatever he wants.

Don't laugh at #2 this is what the recent buyer at inn@7 did, and paid the entire monthly loan service debt with HOA fee increases.

Often these deals do pencil, its all about the terms.