I've had a bit of time to ponder Brenneke's 12 million offer for Broken Top. This is what I've come up with, understanding that this is all pulled out of a hat, and high finance is not an area I've had any experience in.

So why would someone be willing to pay 12 million for something that sold for 7.5 million a few months ago -- after it has become very clear that whatever development he has in mind will be hitting huge roadblocks?

1.) Setting benchmark. To the current owners, he can say, see -- I'm willing to pay this much, please don't sue me for wasting 7.5 million of your trust fund. To the club members, he can lay down the gauntlet and say, see -- I'm willing to pay this much, you had your chance and turned it down, and the courts will someday see it that way. To the future courts, see -- I was willing to pay 12 million so please don't throw my lawsuit out of court.

Most of these are predicated on his offer not actually being accepted.

2.) He really believes that he is going to be able to build his development and it will be worth a goldmine.

3.) He sees some other payout down the road. The land, the golf course, the restaurant -- something the rest of us aren't seeing.

Which is more likely?