Fact: Bend has grown by 44.7% since 2000.

Fact: Central Oregon income is behind national, state averages.

Fact: The Grove is closing.

How do these facts relate?

I've already been contemplating the demise of some of my long competitors, (Gambit, 10 years; American Sports, 17 years), at a time when Bend is undergoing a population surge.

You can make a strong case that retail footage in Bend has increased even faster, (my guess is that the retail surge has been at least double again the population) so everyone is actually fighting for a shrinking dollar share.

But I also believe that that half-again population figure is a bit of a mirage, so far. These newcomers are not fully residents of Bend, yet. They've just moved here, they're in the process of settling in. They aren't organic to the area, they've come here from somewhere else. They're disoriented; the normal getting acquainted and familiar with the area is going to take time.

It's hard to gain any loyalty, or even customer awareness, when waves of newcomers keep arriving. There is little of the normal benefit to longevity in such an atmosphere. To a person who has only been here for a couple a years, a 3 year old business doesn't look all that different from a 20 year old business. What does it matter to them?

It's complicated by the fact that so many of the people moving here aren't really feeling like citizens, yet. Many are retirees, whose identity is probably still wrapped up in where they spent most of their lives. I don't get the sense that many of these newcomers are in a hurry to dive into a new identity as Bendites.

It will probably come, eventually. If and when the surge slows down and we can all take a deep breath. Until then, familiar mass market names are probably going to be first choice to many of these newcomers. So far, I feel like many of these people are skimming what Bend has to offer, sampling, and floating. They haven't really dug
in.

Some may never really see Bend as anything but an extended vacation. Meanwhile, many of the new workers in town may see Bend as a temporary work place. So the business community is going to have a hard time catching on with a lot of these people.

I've always maintained that the first population surge, up until about 1990, tried to fit in. The second wave overwhelmed the local traditions, either consciously or unconsciously. This third wave just doesn't care. They're here for the amenities, baby.

It's not a normal situation. And we aren't going to get normal results.