Thursday, May 31, 2012

Baghdad Bob went into real estate.

BIG PICTURE blog has a list of dozens and dozens of major articles about how the housing market has bottomed and is ready to recover.

Starting in 2006.

Then in 2007.

2008.

2009.

2010.

2011.

2012.

And on and on.

Bless his skeptical little heart.

I think the local real estate blogs have been proclaiming it every couple of months. The Bulletin insists on having headlines that imply it.

Like I've tried to say since the beginning. My experience is that markets don't recover until you've given up expecting them to recover.

Complete capitulation.

Whatever happened to Baghdad Bob?

13 comments:

yokem55 said...

I've been hearing stories about bidding wars at the lower end of the market - sub 200k. A mortgage broker i know referred to the situation as eerily scary, and reminiscent of the "bad good old days".

And for what it's worth, Zillow says that our home that we purchased a year ago is up 25%. I don't believe it at all, but at least they aren't saying we're underwater.

I don't doubt that the high end of the market still has a long way to fall, and thus dragging down overall medians, but I tend to think things are bouncing along the bottom on the lower end of the market....

Duncan McGeary said...

I've been hearing that for a couple of years now.

My guess? The kinds of houses that people can actually afford to live in and would want to live in, weren't being built in the bubble.

Or...they are being released to the market so slowly there is artificial demand.

Anonymous said...

I have been looking for a house to buy in Bend for 3 years. The same market keeps recirculating, on and off the market every spring but what strikes me as odd, they re-list them at a higher price, not lower. I think houses will move once the $300 and above range sellers face reality and price right.

H. Bruce Miller said...

"I have been looking for a house to buy in Bend for 3 years."

We need to talk.

Anonymous said...

Why, do you have a "charmer" or a "gem" or something that's been on the market 200 days "that won't last?" I think I've seen them all, but I'd be happy to discuss real estate, and my experiences if you are not in the housing field in any way.

Anonymous said...

"Why, do you have a "charmer" or a "gem" or something that's been on the market 200 days "that won't last?"

Dum dum, HBM says "we need to talk" because he thinks you are CRAZY for wanting to buy a house in Bend. You haven't been on these blogs much, I take it.

Anonymous said...

No, I just discovered these blogs. I am neither dum [sic] or crazy. Maybe you could politely clue me in,

H. Bruce Miller said...

"Why, do you have a "charmer" or a "gem" or something that's been on the market 200 days "that won't last?"

Nope, hasn't been on the market yet.

H. Bruce Miller said...

Duncan, congratulations on getting your picture on the cover of The New Yorker's science fiction issue!

Duncan McGeary said...

Yeah, I look pretty good brandishing a raygun.

Oh....you mean the guy in the left upper corner....

H. Bruce Miller said...

"you mean the guy in the left upper corner...."

Yep. A dead ringer.

Anonymous said...

H. Bruce Miller OK now I know who you are, kinda. Bend Sux! Yes, let's talk for sure. How can I contact you?
Thanks

H. Bruce Miller said...

Anon: Suggest a meeting place and time. I'll even buy you a drink.