I feel almost an obligation to take on the real estate issues, since nobody else seems to want to anymore. But I just don't know enough about the inner mechanics -- and though I read the economic blogs, I'm not obsessive about it.
For instance, I know there is much to say about the Bulletin's front page story: "Deschutes County Sees Drop in Notices of Default", but much of the contrary information was put out weeks and months ago on blogs like Calculated Risk, and it'd be a huge chore to try to dredge it up now.
I'll point out the most obvious -- the last quarter of 2009 was comparing to the last quarter of 2008, which was -- as I'll keep saying -- the 90 pound weakling of quarters.
Also, for a breathtaking shot of clarity and perspective, check out the chart of "notices of default." 221 in 2006; 3,507 in 2009.
My own analysis is that the drop is probably due more to delay and short-term boosts than to any underlying change. Hey, underwater homeowner, apply for a loan modification so we don't have to default on your lagging ass until later....
If Bend runs a year behind, we'll hear about defaults being lower elsewhere in the country first; and the experts quoted in the article are predicting an INCREASE in Notices of Default nationwide in 2010.
Suffice to say, I don't think Deschutes County is anywhere near out of the woods.
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I'll have to pick up a copy. Every number I have seen says we are up.
I see 623 NODs for 2008q4.
I see 820 NODs for 2009q4.
820 is more than 623, no?
What numbers were they using?
First paragraph.
"The number of notices of default filed in Deschutes County in the last three months of 2009 fell on a quarterly basis for the first time since the third quarter of 2008, according to county records."
Hmmmm....
So it dropped compared to the second quarter, 2009?
I always feel it's more accurate because of seasonal differences, especially in Bend, to compare it to the same quarter a year earlier.
So, in fact, it didn't actually beat the 90 pound weakling of last year?
I would also point out that it's a mistake to base a 'trend' on a single quarter.
It sounds like they are comparing 2009q3 to 2009q4.
One thing I notice these days is that the average time between when an mortgage holder defaults and when they actually get served their NOD seems to be bigger than it was a year ago. Last year it seemed that most NODs were served to people that were 3-5 months behind. Looking these days I see quite a few that are 6-12 months behind before the NOD is served.
Just because the number of NODs are smaller than q3 doesn't mean that the number of people that stopped paying are.
The rate of defaults have slowed significantly. That does not mean that there are fewer loans in trouble. Nation wide that has gone up significantly. The reason for the slowdown in notices is more due to the banks and the pressure being put on them by the government to work out loans. As well as the laws that have been passed in some states which slow down the process.
Well, thank you guys. I think we need someone talking about these things.
Personal bankruptcies are up.
Home sales are down.
That's what I'm reading.
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