I spent last night researching the state of independent bookstores. I enjoyed it -- a whole new world of info for an info junkie. I didn't realize, really, that the independent bookstores were in such trouble, and I was surprised by the conclusions I came up with.

The web is full of articles about the "death" of the independent bookstore. A hue and cry throughout the land. Much gnashing of teeth and rending of clothes. Many and copious crocodile tears.

And there are an equal number of articles -- reporters love these -- about a plucky indy who is somehow surviving the onslaught of Amazon and Borders and Barnes & Noble because they work so hard, or because they are just so darn cute....or because....or....well, just because.

The following statistics are pretty rough. They were gleaned from over a 7 year expanse of time, and were often contradictory or confused. But I think I can round them down to something approximating the real world.

1). The number of bookstores that belong the the ABA (American Booksellers Association) has dropped from 5200 to 1700 over the last 10 to 15 years. Not all stores belong to the ABA, so a likely estimate is somewhere around 2500 indy bookstores still exist. Interestingly to me, that is about the same number of bookstores as there are comic stores. Who knew?

There is the same problem in defining an independent bookstore as there is counting comic stores, (which are often combo game and comic, or comics and cards) -- how do you count a hybrid.? A store like mine, for instance, which sells new books, but has a majority of business in other areas? There a quite a few stores that sell both new and used books, for instance.

But what is probably undeniable is that independent bookstores have declined by over half in the last couple of decades.

Interestingly, a huge number of articles about the 'plucky' bookstore were amended by postscripts that the same stores had given up the ghost.

Lastly, there was a flurry of articles over the last couple of years that, -- gosh,-- 90 new stores had opened, followed by 97 new stores, or....and they were even more plucky and hard working and independent than the stores that were leaving, you know. Or braver or smarter.

But if you actually read the articles, it is quite clear that many of the newer stores are smaller, opening on a wing and a prayer in small towns. And many of the stores that are closing are old, established institutions. Famous stores that Hemingway and Faulkner used to frequent. That kind of store.

On the surface, not a fair trade. But I'm not so sure. More about that in the conclusion.

Just in the last year alone, stores as venerable as Cody's; Murder, Inc.; Keplers; Micawber Books; A Clean Well-Lighted Place for Books and many many others that have been around for 20, 30, even 40 years have closed. All of them blame the twin hammer blows of the mass chains opening in the 90's, followed by Amazon in the 00's.

2). The average profit for an indy is somewhere around 2%.

I hate statistics like this, which are disingenuous at best, misleading at worst.

What they are really saying is, 2% is what is left over after the owner has paid himself. So if a store grosses 200,000 and after cost of goods has 80,000 and has fixed expenses not counting the owner of 60,000 to me that means the owner profited 20,000, or 10%. Not a lot of money, to be sure, but not the 4000 profit that statistic would imply. Reporters buy this statistic hook, line and sinker because it sounds so pathetic, but it's bullpucky.

3). Independent stores in 1999 constituted 19% of booksales, and Borders and Barnes & Noble were over 50%. So, if anything, this has probably shifted even more in the direction of the mass market, and doesn't even include Amazon. The other 30%? I have to assume grocery stores, Walmart, newsstands, etc. I think I could safely say, however, that with the further decline of indys, the further expansion of the mass market, the addition of Amazon, and the further encroachment of stores like Costgo and Walmart, that the Indy's share has dropped even further. To pluck a figure out of the air....say, 10%? No wonder the publishers are choosing to ignore the independent bookstores. (New information; indy share is 15% these days....) (Newer information; a story from 2006 says 10%). (New newer info -- another article lands at 7%, up from 6%. I think I'll stick to my original 10% estimate....)

4.) The new book sales were 31.4 billion in 2001; 36.4 billion last year. Wow. I don't believe that has even kept up with inflation. Here's what's interesting about that statistic. If independent bookstores are such a small part of the business, how can it be that Borders and Barnes & Noble keep opening bookstores? Not even taking into account that Amazon has stomped into the market since 2001.

What is says to me -- every mass market store that opens has a smaller share of the market than the store before. That the mass market is cannibalizing itself. That it is, indeed, a ponzi scheme. Because book sales actually went DOWN last year! A Borders that opened in Bend wouldn't be taking business away from the local indys, because the local indy's sales aren't enough to make a difference. Bend is growing, sure, but if new stores are opening throughout the USA, but sales aren't increasing, than it stands to reason that new stores are poaching on existing stores. Overall, you can't keep opening outlets if sales are stagnant without becoming less and less cost effective.

5). Used bookstore sales are only 2.2 billion. Just 6% of new sales. That is an eye-opening stat.

In Bend, there are two used bookstores, both of which I believe are making a modest living. Just like I'm pretty sure the local independents are making a modest living. Even taking into account that the cost of goods for a used bookstore is probably half of what it is for a new bookstore, there is only one explanation that I can come up with: the local indy's share of the market is tiny. The mass market can't be stealing enough from the indy's share, because the indy share isn't big enough.



The following overall conclusions somewhat surprise me. I know I'm offended when people say the same thing about comic shops, that if we can't adapt we don't deserve to survive. But after reading all those interviews with independent new bookstores, I've lost a lot of my sympathy for them.

I pretty sure that the comic market is less than a billion, which is sliced up by 2500 shops. The new bookstore indy share has to be closer to 4 billion, also for 2500 shops, which means that either comic stores are subsisting on much less money, or that bookstores are much less efficient. I think it is a combo of both. (Because I sell comics and also new books, I know that the margins and the costs are similar.)

This going to sound cold, but after reading all the interviews with indy bookstore owners, I don't think that some of them deserve much pity. It sounds to me that many bookstores have become hidebound and inflexible and unwilling to accept real change. Those that are surviving are enamored with the promotional side of surviving; IE, book signings, outreach, all sorts of guerrilla marketing. (Which is a great phrase, because I always think of a guy in a gorilla suit with a sign jumping up and down on the sidewalk.) They never talk about how hard these outreach programs are to sustain, how costly in time and energy. And how it only obscures the bottom line problems.

To be blunt, I think that some bookstores have become spoiled; that they exude a sense of entitlement; that they believe they should be supported simply because they are independent, and because of their 'love' of books. They are spending a huge amount of time and effort trying to get the public to feel sorry for them, and what is going to happen is that the public will express sympathy, and then buy from Amazon anyway. These older stores are indeed going to be replaced by smaller bookstores, vanity stores some of them, but also hardscrabble stores that are willing to do the same job without all the pretensions. And some of the older bookstores do seem to 'get' it, and are making changes.

I know that my store has never been able to survive on comics alone, that I've had to make constant changes, to diversify, to look for ways to increase my margins, to accept less and compromise more than I'd like. And eventually I came up with a formula that seems to work. I don't get the sense that most old line bookstores are willing to make the same kinds of choices. They seem to be saying that, "We've always made this much money. We've had book signings and, Look! We have a web page... and it isn't making enough of a difference. We quit."


What I think is going to happen is that the mass market stores, because of their ponzi scheme nature, are going to start to have less and less impact, that Amazon has already put the hammer down, but any stores still surviving have found ways to co-exist. That smaller stores are going to pop up, without the preconceptions and hidebound ways, that the publishers will wake up in time to save the remnants of the independent market.

At least, that is what I hope.