An e-mail from a friend has prompted me to remind everyone that I am not anti-growth, per se. I am anti irrational and unsustainable growth. It is the gray area between the two that I'm trying to explore.

I grew up in Bend. It was a nice small town, and always had a sense of vibrancy that I didn't feel in other small towns. But the town I grew up in wouldn't have supported my store. It didn't have bookstore at all, and only one theater. It was conservative and slow to change.

I also have a memory of a time when Bend was struggling, when it was hard to sell a house, or create a business, when downtown was 40% vacant and the malls could never seem to really
ever get going. And I have the unique experience of going through 7 or 8 bubbles in my business; baseball cards, comics, pogs, beanie babies, pokemon, etc. and knowing how destructive bubbles can be.

So growth is fine, as long as it is grounded in reality. What I'm trying to narrow is the gap between the perception of what Bend is and what it will support, and the reality of what Bend is and what it will support. I want my rent to reflect the true level of sales, I would prefer to face competition that is based on a true level of customers. I would like to cut through the B.S. that the Chamber of Commerce and the promotional side of Bend (real estate, financials, developers, insurance agents, etc.) tend to spin.

It has got me thinking about what I truly think is going to happen in Bend.

I don't expect a collapse. Mostly, because I think big money has been invested in Bend, and big money isn't going to pull out without losing their investment. My sense is that there is too much momentum. Bend has gotten big enough that it would probably take a perfect storm to bring it down to an early 80's level downturn. (Sure, if the economy falls into recession, the housing bubble bursts, their is a major terrorist strike, etc. it could happen.) But if that happens, we're all in trouble, and there isn't much you can do to avoid it.

Sure, we could be economic survivalists, and hole up waiting for a disaster. I have a friend who has maintained for a couple of decades now that the economy is going down the drain. He'll be right, one of these days. And there are probably still survivalists holed up in cabins in the mountains waiting for the U.S.S.R. to rain nuclear missiles down on our heads. Thing is, in both cases, holing up would only delay the inevitable.

There is something very satisfying in predicting doom, and watching it happen. Years ago, my sports card distributors talked about how we needed a nice solid slowdown to weed out the bad businesses. I bought into that notion. But I was wrong. Any downturn bad enough to weed out the bad businesses, will inevitably bring down good businesses, and hurt the survivors. On the other hand, excesses do need to be wrung out of the economy before they get so big they bring us all down.

I do think there are some unreasonable levels of retail in Bend. I think there are unreasonable expectations of growth and prices. There has been a housing bubble. I suspect there are some financial shenanigans going on. I don't think millionaires are going to buy all the condo's downtown, I don't believe the Old Mill District is truly profitable, I believe we have overbuilt motels and that a lot of developments are going to fall flat. I believe we are in danger of driving out viable businesses through rent increases, and being replaced by vanity businesses.

Right now, the gray areas is a little too wide for comfort. But reality will eventually reassert itself. I'm just hoping it will be about the time I'm negotiating for a new lease, and that I've managed to bring down my debt, and even have some cash in the bank. I'm hoping that my businesses will be solid enough to withstand a downturn, and that the froth of irrational and unsustainable growth doesn't drown my more reasonable ambitions.