I was ready to tackle the "Growth is Expected in Central Oregon" article in the Bulletin. But there was nothing to tackle but air.
Other than Facebook creating more (temporary) jobs, not a lot substance. The forecast was so general and vague as to be pretty useless.
Let's see. To get more jobs, we need to be more "innovative." Which is pretty much saying that we could get more work done if we work harder.
Thanks. What are we paying you, again?
So nothing much there. I'll just fall back on my on internal guesstimates.
As I mentioned a few days ago, I don't expect my sales to get back to pre-crash numbers until 2016 or so. Which falls in line with the other article in the Bulletin, "Few Cities Have Regained Jobs...." which predicted it would be 2016-2018 before Bend regained the jobs it lost.
Is the economy improving?
Lots of articles to that effect. All over the place.
My own guess isn't that it's improving so much, as that people have settled in. The new baseline to work from.
Unless Europe goes south, and gauging from the falloff in news about that (and only gauging from the falloff in news about that) the danger seems to be slowly receding.
Still, plenty of warning articles as well.
Not that the media is a reliable gauge, but probably more reliable now than it was during the boom. There is definitely an optimism bias there. But at least there is a bit more skepticism these days.
Locally, I still know quite a few people who are struggling. I have a customer who works for a major employer around here whose entire office division was laid off -- and he thought the manufacturing part was not far behind. If so, it will be a major blow.
On one hand, this is the 'real' economy in Bend, and I think it's still struggling. But I can deal with that. It's just a one damn thing after another scenario which I'm completely accustomed to. What I was dealing with in the first decade of my business....well, hell, for most of the years I've been in business.
On the other hand, I'm actually more fearful of economic panics -- such as the collapse of Europe, or any other earth shaking event. Those can have more dramatic impacts on sales than the slow drip, drip, drip of a struggling local economy.
We had a nice Christmas, but I think that we're talking about tourists who are affluent enough to visit Central Oregon in the first place -- are probably affluent enough to actually shop, and since they are on vacation, will buy in shops instead of online. (This goes double for new residents who start new businesses -- that they can move here and open stores probably just shows they have the means to do so.)
Which is a real valuable attribute to Bend's tourist economy. (The Growth article also mentioned the "retirement" business as being a growth area.)
So, as usual, I fall back on tourism and retirement as being our main industry around here, which unfortunately means that we'll remain mostly "poverty with a view" for most of us.
I think that's O.K. as long as we understand and adapt to it.
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23 comments:
"I'm actually more fearful of economic panics -- Those can have more dramatic impacts on sales"
Yes. You have just identified a rationale for boosterism, optimistic media coverage of the economy.
When those events occur, people overcompensate the other way.
Even people with money to spend will stop spending it, and everything gets worse in a vicious cycle.
For Bend it comes back to housing. A very high percentage of Bends economy at the peak was related to housing. doesn't really matter how the rest of the country is doing, that part of Bends economy will probably never come back to the level it was at the peak. today there is a glut of houses and even when that glut is gone, it is unlikely that the construction rate will ever return to what it was in 2004, 2005, 2006.
As such Bend does need to look for other ways to replace that portion because waiting won't do it.
"this is the 'real' economy in Bend, and I think it's still struggling."
I've been here 26 years and I can't think of a time when it hasn't been struggling, except for the brief bubble interlude.
"Bend does need to look for other ways to replace that portion because waiting won't do it."
True. But what can replace it? Bend lacks the basic elements on which to build a sustainably prosperous economy. It's remote, isolated, lacks marketable natural resources, lacks first-rate public schools, lacks a university, lacks a large pool of well-educated workers, and has (most of the year) a shitty climate. The only assets it's got going for it are the scenery and the "healthy outdoor lifestyle" thing. Those may attract a few small entrepreneurs who will launch small businesses, but they won't transform Bend into Silicon Valley North.
"The Growth article also mentioned the "retirement" business as being a growth area."
Bend is not going to be a retirement mecca, for numerous reasons which I have already stated. Many if not most of the older folks I know here can't wait to get out.
"...most of the older folks I know here can't wait to get out."
Yeah, but those are the people who actually live here. ;)
While I agree that the primary drivers of the Central Oregon economy is tourism and retirees I also think that the recreation and medical/health industries contribute in major ways.
It might be argued that recreation is just a part of tourism but my view tourism is primarily passive, out-of-town visitors who might play a round of golf while here after shopping, dining or festival going.
Recreation is active whether by locals or by non-tourist visitors. It is amazing how many bike shops, ski shops, snowboard shops and used sporting good shops Bend seems to be able to support.
And the active recreationist, whether local or out-of-town, helps support the medical/health industry when they get hurt, need therapy, want a massage, etc. It's also amazing how many medical centers, therapy businesses and massage therapists operate in Bend.
It would be interesting to see how much annual gross revenue the local medical/health industry gets solely from the active recreationist and how many of those jobs provide "family wage" income.
I do lump recreation under the tourism banner.
If it draws people to retire here or visit. And there are the "poverty with a view" folk, who live here for the recreation who could do better elsewhere. Kind of a semi-retirement/tourism thing.
I guess I think of them as tourism jobs because they are mostly sales, clerks, service type jobs -- lower wage type.
We do have a regional thing going here, especially with the health care. But as Bruce was saying, this is probably more or less canceled by the isolation factor.
I was talking to another downtown business owner about downtown's effort to promote itself.
I told him I thought our biggest problems aren't that we aren't known, but that we are known as a certain thing and no amount of advertising will change that perception.
The two things I hear over and over again are: Too expensive. No parking.
Neither are completely true. Many of the businesses downtown aren't overpriced. And the parking garage is a very good option. (There is always parking, and it's for 3 hours, free.)
But nothing we can say or do or advertise will change that perception.
In fact, I think we actively promote a "special" image, and there is no denying that we have high end clothing, jewelry, gift stores and fancy restaurants.
These downtown closures attract a certain type of customer. But not everyone.
So, I mean, what do you want?
"And the active recreationist, whether local or out-of-town, helps support the medical/health industry when they get hurt, need therapy, want a massage, etc. It's also amazing how many medical centers, therapy businesses and massage therapists operate in Bend."
LMAO! Yes, I can see a new ad campaign built around this idea: "Break a leg and help the Bend economy!"
Sorry, I just can't see our jock-sniffer culture forming the basis of solid and long-term prosperity. In fact, it could even discourage business investment if Bend comes to be seen as a place where (in the words of one of my former clients) "people come to play, not to work."
"The two things I hear over and over again are: Too expensive. No parking."
Both bum raps laid on downtown by people who probably never would shop anywhere but Walmart anyway.
"And there are the "poverty with a view" folk, who live here for the recreation"
Again, not the kind of people who are the foundation of a solid economy. Bill Gates and Steve Jobs didn't build mighty corporations by going skiing and riding mountain bikes.
Bruce,
Your negativity is sad, brutalizing, defeating and ultimately useless as it only turns people off. (OK, I admit it, that was a personal attack. But so many of your posts make me - and I suspect others - not want to even read them - or read Duncan's blog.)
Yes, Bend / Central Oregon is smack dab in the center of the state and is a long way away from anything and has lots against it - as do most other communities but....
There is little chance for Bend to be anything but a mismanaged little backwater village unless it utilizes its assets. And many of those assets are what attract the Creative Class including "skiing and riding mountain bikes". Gates and Jobs and others like them are/were members of the Creative Class. Do a Google search if you're not familiar with the term. (And you, my bitter, whining friend are clearly not a member of the Creative Class. Oops - there goes another personal attack.)
How about you coming up with one or more positive suggestions on what Bend / Central Oregon can do to improve its lot instead of always criticizing, whining, bitching, and being negative?
I dare you.
I don't think Bruce is overly negative --well, maybe about the weather.
"How about you coming up with one or more positive suggestions on what Bend / Central Oregon can do to improve its lot instead of always criticizing, whining, bitching, and being negative?"
Bend should stop fantasizing about becoming a metropolis and instead try to become the best small town it can be. (Not a "mismanaged little backwater village" but a WELL-MANAGED little village.) That means reining in rampant growth and not allowing every developer to put up any kind of crappy housing project, mall or big-box store wherever he wants, whenever he wants. We've got to get away from the crazy boom-bust cycle and aim for a stable population and sustainable prosperity.
Being the best small town we can be also means developing excellent public amenities including schools, parks and, yes, a public transit system. We do have excellent parks, although we could use more. The public transit system is inadequate and the public schools are mediocre at best (and getting worse thanks to budget cuts).
We also need to impose SDCs adequate to fund these amenities. As it is, the city doesn't even have enough money to fill the potholes -- a consequence of allowing runaway growth without having a way to pay for the infrastructure growth requires.
Of course as long as the local Realtor/Builder/Developer Axis (COBA and COAR) totally controls local government, none of this will happen. So the first step in building a better Bend is to break the power of the Axis. That means electing city council candidates who aren't indebted to it for almost all of their campaign funding.
"And you, my bitter, whining friend are clearly not a member of the Creative Class. Oops - there goes another personal attack."
Yes, there goes another personal attack. I notice the hypersensitive and hyperdefensive locals launch them whenever I try to inject an element of realism into conversations about Bend. But believe it or not, I'm trying to do them a favor. As long as Bendites are interested only in patting themselves on the back and congratulating themselves on their town's incomparable wonderfulness instead of looking at its problems squarely and honestly, Bend will never make any progress.
And I'm "not a member of the Creative Class"? Are you really sure you want to go there, my smug bike-pedaling friend? I have made a living (a pretty good one) with my creative writing skills for more than 40 years. What have been your great creative achievements? Come on, name a couple. I dare you.
And when you're finished doing that, sod off.
Bike Bend.
I'm a great believer that you can't solve problems without identifying the problems and then agitating for solutions.
Which can come across as negative, I suppose.
But it needs to be done.
Positive, magical, thinking won't solve the problems, but can make them worse.
I'm on record as saying that we pay way too much attention to the "image" and not enough to the substance.
I also believe in recognizing when things are unlikely to change, and adapting to that reality.
I try to point out to newcomers -- and so many of the people here are newcomers -- that Bend has some unique attributes (the isolation factor) that they need to recognize.
I don't think it's negative to point out that grandiose projects and over inflated projections aren't helpful, no matter how good they make us feel about Bend.
In the interests of a discussion, your comments are really helpful, though I don't think they need to be personal.
So thank you for sparking this.
"Positive, magical, thinking won't solve the problems, but can make them worse."
Thank you.
"Magical thinking" -- believing you can change things just by "having the right attitude" or "being positive" -- is childish at best and very dangerous at worst. But Americans continue to employ it. In fact, it seems that the worse things get, the more we cling to the faith that things will get better if we just BELIEVE they will. This is the psychology behind the "Doctrine of American Exceptionalism," which has gotten us into deep shit time and time again.
And also behind the "Doctrine of Bend Exceptionalism," which got us into the deep shit of the real estate bubble.
I've seen very very clear examples of it in my business.
The vast majority of compatriots who thought if we all just "banded together" and "were all positive" things would turn around.
I think, for most of them, it was death knell.
Deal with it.
H. Bruce makes a lot of sense, BikeBend. There are too many examples of mismanagment of Bend, the lack of adequate SDCs during the boom years and the Juniper Ridge debacle being just a couple. The shadow market of housing is going to haunt you guys for years to come. Reality rules.
I was a newbie back in 2005. I left in frustration a few years later. Nice geography, cold weather (60 day growing season?), beautiful setting for a well-managed little town. Just keep Todd Taylors' construction company out of the town coffers, and things would go better.
I wonder what the story is behind behind Todd leaving Knife River and starting up TaylorNW.
Now I feel kinda bad about ganging up on Bend Bike Boy.
Well, actually ... no.
Ever since the timber / resources business left town, SO many people (smart, dumb, optimistic, curmudgeonly, creative, conservative, you name it) have devoted thought to the topic of "how do we create a sustainable, prosperous economy in Central Oregon."
And no one has ever come up with a satisfying answer. Over and over again, people start with "this is a really, really nice place, so [insert reason for imminent economic boom]."
Is being a nice place ever enough? Even in Hawaii, one of the nicest places in the world, they have pineapple and coffee plantations and some huge military bases.
And I'm no demographics expert, but where did people come up with this idea that if you like to kayak, ski and rock climb, you're automatically some kind of innovative, well-off brainiac at the same time?
Have you ever seen a photo of Bill Gates stand-up paddling, or Sergei Brin windsurfing, or Mark Zuckerberg mountain-biking? Never - and keep in mind that those guys live in San Francisco and Seattle where the real innovative classes live. The only time Mark Zuckerberg thinks about Central Oregon is when he is looking for a desolate piece of cheap, barren land in order to build a server farm to be operated remotely from Mountain View.
There are plenty of people in Bend whose foreclosed homes had garages full of kayaks, skis and mountain bikes (unless they'd sold them by then). It's silly to believe that liking outdoor recreation means that you're affluent and creative.
I see HBM already made the point I made about Bill Gates et al. Didn't see that the first time.
But here's some optimism:
Maybe things just have to get worse before they get better - maybe in the long run it's better for Central Oregon to be a region with 200,000 people rather than a region with 50,000 or 75,000 people that it had before the boom.
What I mean is that the fundamentals of the Central Oregon economy haven't changed - it's still isolated, still no university and so on, just like it was before the boom, but now Central Oregon is much more likely to get government investment into transportation infrastructure, higher education, etc. if it's a struggling region with a significant population rather than a struggling region with a small population that can be ignored.
So in that sense, it's a positive thing that we've become one of the national poster children of the bubble bust. It means that at least we matter. "The squeaky wheel gets the grease," they say. Things aren't going so well in Burns or Baker City right now either, but what's even sadder is that barely anyone knows, even in Oregon.
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