Reversion to mean.

No, I'm not talking about me reverting to being mean. I'm talking about the economy of Bend.

About 6 years ago, Linda and I finally finished off paying our credit cards. I was finally released from the crushing debt, which had left very little money to buy inventory. I was finally able to begin to build the store back up.

I had a sales figure in mind, a daily average, that I thought might be possible, might be impossible, but which -- if I could just manage to get there -- I thought would take care of the store's needs (keep it well stocked and nourished) and also provide a living wage.

We blew past that figure about 2 years ago, and kept climbing.

But you know what? I never really trusted that increase. I never really believed it.

The original figure seemed about right.

And guess where we're at? Granted, this is the slowest time of year, but I also expect that sales are going to continue to struggle for another year or two, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if our average ends up being what our slowest month is now.

And that would be just fine. Because the store was designed for that sales figure. Costs are a bit higher, of course, but it turns out that I've learned enough over the last five years to increase productivity enough to pretty much neutralize that increase.

I'm not trying to be Goldilocks here, just saying that I had what I considered a 'realistic' number in mind -- and it doesn't surprise me that when things start reverting, that is the number we are ending up with.

I'm afraid I think that most of the growth this town experienced over the last 3 or 4 years was an illusion. I don't think there is enough business for even half the restaurants we currently have, much less the new ones that are coming.

But it really doesn't matter what I think about restaurants and jewelry stores and clothing stores and art galleries. I can't relate. I don't understand their appeal. I'm not qualified to speak, when I rarely buy anything or eat out. There is a psychology out there I freely admit I don't understand, represented by what I see advertised in the Source, for instance.

But I do have a pretty good sense of what's likely to happen in MY store, and I'm comfortable with that. I think it's going to get slowly tougher for at least a couple years for most businesses, but that is also a chance to gain market share, to make a statement, to be steady, and reliable and interesting when others are faltering.

I'm afraid I don't believe there is much substance behind the curtain. That the curtain was hiding the truth; that it was fluff and hype. Maybe -- if I had a sense that all these newcomers were really committed to Bend, I might believe that the substance would fill in. But I get the opposite sense -- that people are here almost as a lark, as an amenity, as a dream. Not a cold, hard reality. I'm not offended by this, really I'm not. This is the way of the world.

But my own experience has been that when the jobs dry up, so do the people. If the housing bubble has popped, and and think it has; and if it has a ways to go down; and it think it does; then we are left with two possibilities for people living here.

First, that they are retired and or well off. Or secondly, that there is more viable industry here than I think. But, what I think is that way too many jobs are connected to the housing industry in this town, either directly or indirectly.

And that the money flowing through this town was coming from the growth -- the building, and the hyping. And when that dries up, we are back to our basic industries -- tourism and retirement, which are more or less minimum wage paying jobs.

But again, I didn't get a lot of the 'rich' money, anyway. Most of my customers are working stiffs.

This is all just a gut feeling, but I've learned to trust those feelings. RDC and Bendbb would require more evidence to come to such conclusions, and I respect that. I could be wrong, because it really is only a feeling. On the other hand, I've always firmly believed we were in a bubble, and in my observation, bubbles don't just pop and you shrug it off. The consequences are more dire than most people think. We'll survive and muddle through -- those of us who survive and muddle through....

But I also think I can kind of sidestep a bunch of the problems I foresee for many businesses, because I've been planning for it. In some ways, I felt more threatened by the boom -- the ever rising rents, the constant threat of a competitor with 'more money than sense,' the possibility that the building I'm in could be sold and torn down or renovated; or almost as bad, the building across the street (that not only looked possible, for awhile, but probable.) Things falling back to old habits and patterns is somewhat reassuring.

I know that there will be some challenging times coming up; I've learned to my chagrin that downturns hurt everyone, even those who think they're prepared. No business is completely safe from every contingency.

I don't expect very many people to agree with my assessment. I'm not expecting a quick disaster -- just a slow grinding down, a slow reassessment and dawning realization that the boom times aren't coming back quickly, and that Bend isn't the goldmine newcomers thought it was.

I think we'll have a cooling off period, maybe even a population loss. (It's anecdotal, but there seem to be a heck of a lot of people leaving, for one reason or another.) I think that it will turn out that many of the 'rich' are up to their ears in debt. People will just have to settle down and get used to it. Some of the businesses will have enough reserves to weather this downturn, some won't. Some will have enough willpower to survive, some won't. Some will be just a little smarter, and will work a little harder, some won't.

All this will take at least another year or two before it becomes common knowledge. If nothing else, there are still a whole bunch of businesses that haven't even opened yet. For many others, who have opened in the last year or two, this is only the sniffles stage. It will be hardly noticeable to most people. Ironically, it's the people who have already been through the mill a couple of times who are giving up. Because they know what's coming.

Most people will just go merrily on their way.

But that's O.K. It just gives me more time to prepare.