Sunday, May 25, 2008

Lookey here! We have industrial space! Afterall.

In a small way, I feel I have a parallel situation to a new resident looking to buy a home. That is, I need to renew my lease over the next year or so. If I believe that commercial real estate is going to weaken, it would be in my best interests to wait to negotiate.

On the other hand, I really dislike the uncertainty of it, and would like to get it out of the way.

In my case, I don't believe rates are likely to go down -- but they may just stabilize at current levels.

I'm torn between trying to do it now, or waiting -- just like a home buyer.

So I'm interested when the Bulletin publishes a piece about weakness in the commercial market. TOO MANY COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS, FEW TENANTS.
They are mostly talking about industrial and office space, and mention that retail space has barely budged. Which is a little hard to fathom when I see so many spots for rent on Greenwood. But I won't argue it.

The industrial and office space numbers are kind of interesting. It wasn't so long ago that there was concern and worry that Bend didn't have enough of this kind of space. Just like the concern over lack of land for housing, I thought it was a bogus issue. I felt that market forces would take care of the problem.

And so it has. No real short term need for land for houses, is there? And a 14.2 vacancy rate would indicate that the market has corrected itself.

Not long ago, there was much bemoaning that Redmond had it over us Bendites; well, they sure do. That 21.6 vacancy rate sure shows us!

Meanwhile, over at Bendbubble2, Paul-doh is back to accustomed zest in deflating the bubble.

1 comment:

tim said...

I don't buy the idea that retail is still tight. Maybe the most desirable retail locations are.

A lot of that stuff that's office or industrial is zoned so that it could be retail as well, if there were demand.

Like you said, there's tons of empty retail along Greenwood (Boomtown is a nice space).

There's also scads of just-built new retail in NW Crossing. Who is going to fill that crazy space?

And, of course, we're always reading threats developers are making to bang out office condos and retail near the athletic club.

Yeah, we really need more office condos.