Friday, May 2, 2008

Perfect Example of Temptation.

The Book Barn closing is a perfect example of temptation.

I've had pretty good response to my new book section, but my inventory is relatively small. Up to now, I've been able to be very selective and choosy. Hell, on SF I've pretty much read every book. I could easily do the same with Mysteries. In fact, I am such a reader, could probably do an entire store that way.

I've kept my ears open to good books, but didn't pay too much attention to new bestsellers. I even had a bit of holier than thou attitude, saying carry the cool books, not the bestsellers, if you want to distinguish your store from Barnes and Nobles.

It's different trying to be a full service store.

I think I could do it. I think that trying to be a comic store is about the hardest thing I could've chosen to do. Linda's experience has taught me that maybe I long ago tied myself to a limited opportunity. My experience with just about every other product has taught me the same thing. I've been surprised by how relatively responsive the customers are to things like books, games and toys.

But in order to pursue any other business model, I'd have to completely make-over my store and put it all at risk. Besides, I like comics and I like my customers, so that ain't going to happen.
Maybe if I was younger, and knew what I know now.

So, just like I have every other sideline, I'll look for a balance between exploiting an opportunity, and not pulling the rug out from under the product I already have.

I already had a plan in place to become more a real bookstore, but I wasn't in any hurry. I was going to reorganize the front of the store, and then spend most of summer filling it in, paying for it within normal cashflow. I think I'm going to stick to that plan, though maybe hurry the reorganization a little (since I've already bought the bookcases.) But the filling in, I've got to wait until summer.

So I might lose a few potential Book Barn customers -- I don't think I would've got many of them in the best case scenario. They just wouldn't be thinking of me that way. No, if I'm going to get book customers, it's going to be browsers, tourists and visitors. Plus, slowly, if I do a good job and am very responsive to customers, I'll slowly gain newcomers to town who don't know I'm not supposed to be a bookshop but see me as a bookshop because I have the books they want.

If, on a scale of 1 to 10 in potential, Pegasus is currently at a 1, and if I did everything exactly right I might be able to get to a 6; rushing it might get me to a 3 by the end of summer, and a 4 or 5 by Christmas. Taking my time, might get me to a 2 by summer, and a 3 or 4 by Christmas.

By rushing it, I mean spending money. Borrowing it. Risking it.

That's my dilemma. I had the same problem last year when Gambit went out of business; and the same problem last summer when American Sports went out of business. Opportunity arises just as I'm trying to save money.

It makes sense when you think about it. The same conditions that impel me to want to reduce debt and raise cash also are impacting on other businesses; thus creating opportunity.

My problem is that I'm solid enough to actually pursue those temptations, but not quite solid enough to do it without risk.

I went ahead and pursued the games to the best of my ability, and the sports cards, and the new books (cause, frankly, I saw the Book Barns closing coming). I didn't go in debt to do it; but I also didn't save up as much cash or reduce debt as much as I originally intended.

And sure enough, just as I was getting 80% of the way to my stocking goal on games, and 60% of the way on sports cards, the housing bubble popped. Despite knowing it was coming, it still caught me off guard. (I had guessed it wouldn't happen until this spring......)

I think, when you own a small business, you can't avoid risk. Sure, you can buy less inventory and save a few bucks, but you are also limiting your opportunities. It's a fine line.

What's kind of cool is to have the opportunities. There was a period of time in the late 1990's when I watched every product I carried go down in demand. And I couldn't find any other product to shore up the bottomline. That was scary. At least, now I have too many opportunities; I can pick and choose.

For instance, I keep eyeballing Warhammer. The one store in town that was carrying it, doesn't seem to be doing much with it. There was rumor of another store coming to town, and that hasn't been dispelled yet; but there is a temptation, a tantalizing chance to get that business.

But not if I do books, because then my head would explode.

I don't believe I've ever regretted taking up the gauntlet. I mean, I'm only given that small window to respond, I can't just say, present me with this opportunity when it's more convenient. Because the opposite holds true -- when it's convenient to me, it will also be an opportunity for everyone else.

The perfect time to take advantage is when you can, and they can't.

3 comments:

RDC said...

Actually when you think about it the down times is when you really make a successful business. It is when successful companies grow their market share, trim costs, and build their base for the next expansion period.

It is a problem for marginal businesses or those that over extend during the boom times and cannot successfully adjust to the slow down.

It is a good time to acquire or merge businesses as well. You are getting a chance to see their balance sheet at its worst and make your decisions appropriately.

Duncan McGeary said...

As you say, rdc.

But timing is important, and I'm not being given the luxury of spending the next six months shoring up my finances before I take the opportunity.

Nor was I given a chance last winter when Gambit went, or last summer when American Sports went, or the first of this year when Anime Mt. went.

In each case, I'd already seen it coming and was making progress. Just as I started adding new books last year because....well, I wasn't wishing the Book Barn bad luck, but I could see there was a real possibility they would quit.

So, because I saw it in advance, I'm partly there already. But, I've never quite had the chance to "grow their market share, trim costs, adn build their base for the next expansion period" the way I wanted.

Probably works the same -- half way
shored up, but half way there already.

Liz said...

Have you heard about this line of books? They're reprinting a lot of the old pulp classics.