Monday, March 3, 2008

Interesting how the horrible job statistics are coming out now, just as the busier spring building season is gearing up. Wonder if it's just priming the pump for a nice cheery story in a month or two about how employment is up. Up I tell you!

But I can't help wondering how 8000 construction workers are going to find enough to do, if only 25 building permits were taken out in December, 07 and only 11 building permits in Jan., 08; with my guess of not much more than that in February. Even with the big projects included, which are probably done by Kirby Nagelhut and Hap Taylor, there wouldn't seem to be much to do.

Or the real estate agents, or the mortgage people, escrow and title, appraisers, etc. etc.

Or the places that fill those 25 or 11 houses with furniture or kitchenware or linen.

Or the landscapers and tree-trimmers and the painters and roofers and plumbers and electricians.

Not the mention all the folk that probably weren't on the official payrolls in the first place....self-employed contractors and such.

But no worries.

We're diversified.

Tourism will save us.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Duncan, Please consider that we slowly add to our definition of MEDIAN & PPSF it drives me crazy that there is NO LOC/QUALITY factor associated with these raw numbers.

***

MLS MEDIANS in BEND don't mean shit, look at the article in the BULL about 'cash' to home buyers, how they're tossing in 4% loans @10yrs, but they'll NOT LOWER price, ..

Why cuz in Bend, the kleptocrats are well organized to NOT let the price 'collapse' 30% like places in FL&CA, they want to show BEND as a firm pillow. Trouble is these boyz still got lots of TOXIC shit to unload, and they'll ALL keep those prices UP, but HONESTLY WHAT DOES IT REALLY FUCKING MATTER?

Like the Atlantic story, which got posted here today, says anybody that BUYS an STD in BEND, is making the ultimate FUCK.

$50 PPSF for STD's NO problem, ... So medians don't go down, cuz Realtors and Builders will not let price go down, so MEDIANS don't mean shit.

Then there is PPSF which doesn't mean shit, cuz its never tied to an area or lot, I'm going to define PPSF-X, where 'X' is A-Z

A- it big lots near drake park, highly desirable inner hood, high quality, built to last 100 years

Z- is DRW or Madras STD remote siberia, small lot, and low quality

Some where in the middle of A->Z is all the lots,quality, and location.

Ok, SURE as FUCK the PPSF-Z will go to $50/sqft, no fucking problem,

But most of the PPSF-A is only 1100sq-ft, and will HOLD fine at $220k, so it will NOT fall below $200/sq-ft.

Just like BEND MLS-MEDIAN, we need the same thing MED-A->Z, so when we talk median, we know what the fucking hell your talking about,

A median at BT, is NOT a median in DRW or east of SE27th in the badlands. A median in inner Bend, near the park, where homes are 100% occupied is 'A' space, but the shit in Siberian 'F' to 'Z' is only 30% occupied at best.

Ok, so above is why medians and ppsf drive me crazy here, cuz they don't tell shit, what makes an 'A'

1.) A big lot over 1/4 acre, or 10,000 sqft, old trees, off street parking, nice big double lot, ...

2.) location, location, location,

3.) quality, home built to fucking last,


As we move towards ... Z

1.) All homes in Bend built after 2002 have NO quality, all built to last five years tops,

2.) Nobody wants to be in siberia, its over, like atlantic says

3.) small lots suck, no place to park the RV, boat, and toyz suck, no reason to live here if you don't have lots of off-street storage

Anonymous said...

Another item someone could note is that BENDBB has deleted the excellent Atlantic-Monthly story from his site, obviously these realtors don't want people to know that siberian STD's are tomorrows ghetto's.