Thursday, March 20, 2008

Darkness on the Edge of Town.

The longer I'm in business, the more I believe that if you just hang in there long enough, you'll come back in style.

There is what I call retail fadism. The following history is loose, and there was a lot of crossover, but you get the picture.

Huge, block-filling department stores came in around the turn of the century, putting all the little stores around them out of business.

Montgomery Ward and Sears innovated the catalog business, and then, when it came time to build stores, looked for cheap land on the edge of town.

As the decades passed, the outskirts became the inskirts, and along came the suburban malls.

Enclosed malls are all the rage, (again, being built on the cheap edges of towns) and Sears and J.C. Penny were quick to move there. Specialty niche stores, like the Gap, came in to fill the smaller spaces.

Then came the big discounters-- Walmart, Target, and huge category killers, Best Buy and Barnes and Nobles. Built on the edge of town. (getting the picture?)

Bigger and bigger, and a new term for developments, Big Box stores, Big Box Centers. With ironically homespun names like "The Village."

Enclosed malls fall out of favor. Some malls started facing outward, and called them "factory outlet" malls. But they quickly sold all the factory outlet material and just became....malls.

Meanwhile, some of the department stores survive and after many years their diversity starts to help them.

The big category killers and the little specialty niche stores start to have trouble, because the Big Box stores are even better at discounting than they are.

And along comes the ultimate "Edge of Town." The internet.

And so it goes.

The little mom and pop stores? Sorry, they don't even count. We are the fleas, persistent and itchy.

6 comments:

News Junkie said...

Mom and Pop stores may be small like fleas, and they may be persistent like fleas, but itchy?! Naw, Mom and Pop stores are comfy!

And that is something that the internet shopping experience will never be, unless they can somehow incorporate more sensory experience into computer technology.

Anonymous said...

Dunc,

I thought you declared a moratorium and Bend 'dirt', and were going to keep things clean and cheerful for while.

I concur that given that your public, and non-anonymous, you really don't want folks coming into your store and saying "There's chicken little". Of course that has already happened.

There's going to be a lot of angry people in town, when most finally get hit in the head with the hammer, and given there are so few public venues for letting off steam, I thought you really were going to focus on comics for awhile??

Or were you telling the rest of us to declare a moratorium?

Duncan McGeary said...

Bilbo, none of this is about housing....

I never said I'd stop talking about issues, only the housing thing....for awhile.

Hey, it's been two days.

Long enough!

Duncan McGeary said...

I don't know if you caught the distinction, but I'm going to keep right on talking about the bubble in the comments section. Reader beware.

When I started this 14 months ago, one of the things I wanted to contribute was my experience with bubbles.

Bubbles always burst sooner, harder, and drop farther than you can possibly believe.

I almost forgot that for awhile.

I think it's happening now, though. Media or no media. It can't really be stopped.

Anonymous said...

Dunc, In this area of what we both said 6-8 months ago a lot has changed, then I assumed another 1983 correction, and I knew MTG finance would collapse, I didn't see the dollar collapse. A lot of people out work, thus that's probably why BEND is building for nobody, they ain't coming, ever, ... but they'll keep building, so long as fools keep filling the BEND money bowl.

***
There's no doubt someone will leave, it will be those still rich enough to be able to PAY to exit.

I like I told tim today, he's NOT a sucker because he can LEAVE.

Hell yes, the vast majority in the last 5-10 years came to Bend to ride the equity cash-cow, and very soon, all but the fucking STUCK, and I'm talking M-STUCK'r stuck, will have gone.

We're only going to be stuck with those who couldn't afford to bail, or were too stupid to bail.

In order to build another 3,000 homes out west of skyline towards Sisters, HOLLERN had to donate the land for the new elementary that just started on Skyline west of Summit-High. This was a contingency for the new Skyline Subdivision that will fill in from Tumalo to Shevlin Park.

Like I have been writing about NWXC is busy building, lots of new homes up in just the last few weeks.

HOLLERN has put all his MONEY & BETS everything forward. So people leave, but prices for new homes will be under $100k. Lots of traffic out on the westside, that's for DAMN sure, right next to the most high-end BLEDSOE mansion, here's a guy spending $30M and he's next to a poverty sub-division, hows that for planning?

Something has to give, its going to get ugly.

Neutron bomb scenario, yes downtown. A friend came over tonight with the new PDX willamette-week for my wife, front page, PDX restaurant collapse.

Bend STD siberian subdivision. As we have long know city-hall and HOLLERN just assumed LIKE HOMER that homes were to expensive, so now were' going to see 1,000's of crap-shacks under $100k,

Hell yes BEND is ASPEN.

Seen this before in the early 1980's out in PALMDALE/LANDCASTER-CA for LA commuters, they built +10,000 homes, and they all had to be demolished,

What the fuck does HOLLERN care, or the city? As long as Knife-River tandem dumps trucks are moving, then the campaign contributions are moving, and that makes Bend HUM.

We're just going to have to watch and see, sure 1,000's of people can invest in RENTAL's that can in theory pencil.

I THINK DUDEs this is the BIG drive for BAT, they know that these 1,000's and 1,000's of poor living in these siberian STD's can't afford gas, so they need to have the BAT in place.

The powers that be have plans for BEND, and you fuckers HAVE NO fucking idea, like our bruce pussy sits in the meeting and then talks about Juniper-Ridge, that ain't the elephant, the elephant is there will still be another 5,000 homes added to inventory this year, they're ain't even new PERMITS, these are homes that have already been permitted and approved, ... got to keep building.

I guess so long as DUMB FUCKING investors, invest in HOLLERN Brooks Financial Services, and think they're going to make money, he'll spend that money on more crap-shacks, why should he care the land cost nothing.

The city pays for SDC, and knife-river gets paid city money to build roads, it has all been working forever, nothing new under the sun.

Where the fuck is it all going??

Duncan, you brought this UP. Neutron bomb??

The BIG fucking question, and I have demanded this for years, we needed a fucking moratorium on crap-shacks to solve the inventory problem, now everyone is going to FUCK one another.

This is why I don't care about the SEBASTIAN story or pic's, we're going to see this 100X, nobody cares, just keep building SHIT,

ITS completely fucking insane.

RDC said...

I do believe that I should buy more Alcoa stock. Bilbobend is certainly creating quite a run on tin foil (his hat must keep getting thicker).

Are we in a down turn, yes. Is Bend going to be in for a sizeable real estate correction, yes. but this is not the end of the financial world as we know it. We will have the town turn and it will be followed at some point by an up turn. The dollar is weaker at this point, it may continue to weaken some, but it is already at the point where the other central banks are starting to step in and support it. It has been weak before and it has been stronger before. The commodity bubble is showing some signs of correcting as well.

The obscenity laced tirades do not exactly create a picture of well reasoned line of thought. As the saying goes a broken clock is right twice a day. If you call for a down turn long enough you will get one, same with an upturn.

The real question is can someone also call the bottom and when things start to roll over.

Yes, we are in a downward direction here, but it is not the utter collapse of civilization