Say, wha?

Contrast these two headlines.

1.) From National Real Estate Investor, 11/25/09.
To Buy or Not to Buy— Moody’s Weighs In on Real Estate Outlook.

Nov 25, 2009 10:29 AM, By Denise Kalette

Despite commercial property value declines of 42.9% from peak 2007 levels, the news is about to get even worse for owners, according to Moody’s Investors Service. In the coming months, Moody’s expects values to fall by as much as 55% from the peak before rebounding.

2.) Commercial Vacancy Rates Stabilizing in Bend -- a Positive Sign, some say. Bend Bulletin, 12/2/09.

Compass broker Darren Powderly, an author of the Compass Points report, said the stabilization is a good sign.

“We're not seeing the death spiral of dramatic increases in vacancies and lower rental rates ... (so) I think we're getting close to the bottom, if not the bottom,” Powderly said.


So maybe Bend is different?

If it's different, it's different in a way that isn't in our favor. First of all, the graph shows a flattening over the last two quarters, hardly a sign of longterm stabilizing. At least, I'd be unwilling to call it over because of one quarter.

The good news is that 39 businesses have opened in Downtown Bend since I started my Opening and Closing List; the bad news is 39 businesses have closed in Downtown Bend. Hardly a sign of stability, though it may be a sign of wishful thinking on the part of new business owners. As a general proposition, I suspect that any retail district is healthier with older, established businesses than with all new businesses.

I don't think we're out of the woods in any meaningful way.

Especially Bend. Too many factors working against us.

The first half of next year will tell the story.