IHATETOBURSTYOURBUBBLE writes in the comments:
"Dunc, please write about the simply ridiculous INBRED nature of today's piece in the Bully regarding "affordable condo".
Patty Moss enriching her construction pals while bankrupting CACB.
And the inane nature of a AUCTION where NOTHING SELLS. Only in Bend."
Consider it done.
But more to the point: such inanity is far from over and we really need someone who will write about this. There used to be a blog called Bend Bubble 2 which did a pretty good job of that. I won't say a word if that blog just quietly starts up again.....
We'll just pretend you never left, dude.
Meanwhile, back to the condo's.
The comment "...the condo's were well-conceived." Well, no. Obviously not. Only people in the middle of a bubble would've believe that condo's built above "affordable" apartments would be attractive. I know it immediately struck me as strange. In fact, you'd have to say that the project went wrong in the "conception" stage; unless they're saying they are pieces of crap, and there's nothing in the article about the actual quality.
The Bank of the Cascades loan was as misguided as many of their 'commercial' loans, and they are going to pay the price.
Live by a bubble, die by a bubble.
"This is a great project." Again, no. No. No. No. Obviously not.
"Well-conceived projects" take "bad timing" into account. "Great projects" do not have "zero" ZERO!! sales (even in an auction!) in competition to other projects....
One good thing these bubble blogs did was point out over 3.5 years ago, in writing, for the world to see, that not everyone thought these projects were a good idea. The argument, "It was just bad timing," implies that Who Could Have Known?
Who Could Have Known? Anyone who was paying attention. As a small business owner, I don't have the luxury of counting "timing" as outside the business plans. Indeed, I could make the case that "timing" is one of the most important elements of business planning. As a small business owner, anything that goes wrong is basically my fault, outside of "Acts of God." (And even those, you have to figure may happen). I may blame the mistakes on lack of information, or on lack of experience, but those are reasons not excuses.
What was most ridiculous was to term these "affordable" at the time. Even at the time, their estimated dollars per square foot was firmly in the middle to upper range, especially historically. I can remember specifically doubting on my blog that there was a huge backlog of well-heeled buyers who would rather buy a 'condo' than a real house "...with a yard."
Another boondoogle, financed by the Bank of the Cascades, with the 'help' of government money.
I'm glad the parking garage was built. Someday the retail will be filled. Someday soon, the "affordable" condo's will simply become apartments, like they probably should have been all along.
The "Commercial" bubble, meanwhile, has barely started it's frothy, messy, bubbly burst in your face, exploding act.
4 days ago